Trabecular Bone Score and Central Quantitative Computed Tomography for the Prediction of Vertebral Fragility Fractures in Postmenopausal Women

BACKGROUND: We aimed to investigate whether densitometry results and volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) can predict vertebral fragility fractures (VFF) in postmenopausal women. METHODS: We enrolled 271 postmenopausal women aged >45 years who visited our hospital for health check-ups between September 2016 and September 2017. The lumbar spine (LS) and femoral neck (FN) densitometry results and trabecular bone score (TBS) were calculated using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry. vBMD was assessed using central quantitative computed tomography (cQCT). Baseline and follow-up X-ray images were reviewed to evaluate thoracolumbar vertebral compression fractures (CFs), according to the Genant criteria. RESULTS: At baseline, 76 patients (28.0%) had CF. Additional or progressive fractures were noted in 26 participants (9.6%) with a median follow-up of 19.5 months. The median TBS and cQCT were significantly higher in participants without baseline CF than those with baseline CF (P<0.001). During the follow-up, Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that T-scores of the LS and FN <−2.5, degraded microarchitecture based on the TBS (≤1.200), and vBMD <80 mg/cm(3) was significantly associated with future osteoporotic CF. The final multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that baseline CF and low TBS and vBMD were significant risk factors for future VFF. CONCLUSIONS: Participants with baseline CF and degraded microarchitecture had higher CF predisposition. Moreover, cQCT can predict future vertebral fractures.