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Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America

Vibrio vulnificus is an opportunistic bacterial pathogen, occurring in warm low-salinity waters. V. vulnificus wound infections due to seawater exposure are infrequent but mortality rates are high (~ 18%). Seawater bacterial concentrations are increasing but changing disease pattern assessments or c...

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Autores principales: Archer, Elizabeth J., Baker-Austin, Craig, Osborn, Timothy J., Jones, Natalia R., Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime, Trinanes, Joaquín, Oliver, James D., González, Felipe J. Colón, Lake, Iain R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10036314/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36959189
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-28247-2
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author Archer, Elizabeth J.
Baker-Austin, Craig
Osborn, Timothy J.
Jones, Natalia R.
Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime
Trinanes, Joaquín
Oliver, James D.
González, Felipe J. Colón
Lake, Iain R.
author_facet Archer, Elizabeth J.
Baker-Austin, Craig
Osborn, Timothy J.
Jones, Natalia R.
Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime
Trinanes, Joaquín
Oliver, James D.
González, Felipe J. Colón
Lake, Iain R.
author_sort Archer, Elizabeth J.
collection PubMed
description Vibrio vulnificus is an opportunistic bacterial pathogen, occurring in warm low-salinity waters. V. vulnificus wound infections due to seawater exposure are infrequent but mortality rates are high (~ 18%). Seawater bacterial concentrations are increasing but changing disease pattern assessments or climate change projections are rare. Here, using a 30-year database of V. vulnificus cases for the Eastern USA, changing disease distribution was assessed. An ecological niche model was developed, trained and validated to identify links to oceanographic and climate data. This model was used to predict future disease distribution using data simulated by seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) which belong to the newest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Risk was estimated by calculating the total population within 200 km of the disease distribution. Predictions were generated for different “pathways” of global socioeconomic development which incorporate projections of greenhouse gas emissions and demographic change. In Eastern USA between 1988 and 2018, V. vulnificus wound infections increased eightfold (10–80 cases p.a.) and the northern case limit shifted northwards 48 km p.a. By 2041–2060, V. vulnificus infections may expand their current range to encompass major population centres around New York (40.7°N). Combined with a growing and increasingly elderly population, annual case numbers may double. By 2081–2100 V. vulnificus infections may be present in every Eastern USA State under medium-to-high future emissions and warming. The projected expansion of V. vulnificus wound infections stresses the need for increased individual and public health awareness in these areas.
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spelling pubmed-100363142023-03-25 Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America Archer, Elizabeth J. Baker-Austin, Craig Osborn, Timothy J. Jones, Natalia R. Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime Trinanes, Joaquín Oliver, James D. González, Felipe J. Colón Lake, Iain R. Sci Rep Article Vibrio vulnificus is an opportunistic bacterial pathogen, occurring in warm low-salinity waters. V. vulnificus wound infections due to seawater exposure are infrequent but mortality rates are high (~ 18%). Seawater bacterial concentrations are increasing but changing disease pattern assessments or climate change projections are rare. Here, using a 30-year database of V. vulnificus cases for the Eastern USA, changing disease distribution was assessed. An ecological niche model was developed, trained and validated to identify links to oceanographic and climate data. This model was used to predict future disease distribution using data simulated by seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) which belong to the newest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Risk was estimated by calculating the total population within 200 km of the disease distribution. Predictions were generated for different “pathways” of global socioeconomic development which incorporate projections of greenhouse gas emissions and demographic change. In Eastern USA between 1988 and 2018, V. vulnificus wound infections increased eightfold (10–80 cases p.a.) and the northern case limit shifted northwards 48 km p.a. By 2041–2060, V. vulnificus infections may expand their current range to encompass major population centres around New York (40.7°N). Combined with a growing and increasingly elderly population, annual case numbers may double. By 2081–2100 V. vulnificus infections may be present in every Eastern USA State under medium-to-high future emissions and warming. The projected expansion of V. vulnificus wound infections stresses the need for increased individual and public health awareness in these areas. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-03-23 /pmc/articles/PMC10036314/ /pubmed/36959189 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-28247-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Archer, Elizabeth J.
Baker-Austin, Craig
Osborn, Timothy J.
Jones, Natalia R.
Martínez-Urtaza, Jaime
Trinanes, Joaquín
Oliver, James D.
González, Felipe J. Colón
Lake, Iain R.
Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America
title Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America
title_full Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America
title_fullStr Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America
title_full_unstemmed Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America
title_short Climate warming and increasing Vibrio vulnificus infections in North America
title_sort climate warming and increasing vibrio vulnificus infections in north america
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10036314/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36959189
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-28247-2
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