Association between obesity and short- and medium-term mortality in critically ill patients with atrial fibrillation: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: There has been controversy about how obesity affects the clinical prognosis for patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), and the relationship between obesity and outcomes in critically ill patients with AF remains unclear. The purpose of this study was to explore the association between obesity and short- and medium-term mortality in critically ill patients with AF. METHODS: The Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) database was used to conduct a retrospective cohort analysis on 9282 critically ill patients with AF. Patients were categorized into four groups based on their body mass index (BMI) values: underweight, normal-weight, overweight, and obese. The outcomes of this study were 30-day, 90-day, and 1-year all-cause mortality. Cox proportional-hazards models and restricted cubic spline analyses were performed to investigate the association between BMI and mortality. RESULTS: For 30-day mortality, after adjustment for all confounding factors, the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) for the underweight, overweight, and obese categories were 1.58 (1.21, 2.07), 0.82 (0.72, 0.93), and 0.79 (0.68, 0.91), respectively, compared to the normal-weight category. Using multivariable-adjusted restricted cubic spline analysis, an “L-shaped” correlation was observed between BMI and 30-day mortality. For each 1 kg/m(2) increase in BMI when BMI was less than 30 kg/m(2), the risk of 30-day mortality decreased by 6.4% (HR, 95% CI: 0.936 [0.918, 0.954]; P < 0.001); however, this relationship was not present when BMI was greater than or equal to 30 kg/m(2). Similar results were observed for 90-day and 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS: There was a nonlinear relationship between BMI and all-cause mortality among critically ill patients with AF. All-cause mortality and the BMI were negatively correlated when the BMI was less than 30 kg/m(2). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12872-023-03179-x.