Clinical-radiomics models based on plain X-rays for prediction of lung metastasis in patients with osteosarcoma

OBJECTIVES: Osteosarcoma (OS) is the most common primary malignant bone tumor in adolescents. Lung metastasis (LM) occurs in more than half of patients at different stages of the disease course, which is one of the important factors affecting the long-term survival of OS. To develop and validate machine learning radiomics model based on radiographic and clinical features that could predict LM in OS within 3 years. METHODS: 486 patients (LM = 200, non-LM = 286) with histologically proven OS were retrospectively analyzed and divided into a training set (n = 389) and a validation set (n = 97). Radiographic features and risk factors (sex, age, tumor location, etc.) associated with LM of patients were evaluated. We built eight clinical-radiomics models (k-nearest neighbor [KNN], logistic regression [LR], support vector machine [SVM], random forest [RF], Decision Tree [DT], Gradient Boosting Decision Tree [GBDT], AdaBoost, and extreme gradient boosting [XGBoost]) and compared their performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and accuracy (ACC) were used to evaluate different models. RESULTS: The radscore, ALP, and tumor size had significant differences between the LM and non-LM groups (t(radscore) = -5.829, χ(2)(ALP) = 97.137, t(size) = -3.437, P < 0.01). Multivariable LR analyses showed that ALP was an important indicator for predicting LM of OS (odds ratio [OR] = 7.272, P < 0.001). Among the eight models, the SVM-based clinical-radiomics model had the best performance in the validation set (AUC = 0.807, ACC = 0.784). CONCLUSION: The clinical-radiomics model had good performance in predicting LM in OS, which would be helpful in clinical decision-making. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12880-023-00991-x.