Elevated urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio increases the risk of new-onset heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Although albuminuria has been linked to heart failure in the general population, the relationship between urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (uACR) and heart failure in type 2 diabetes patients is not well understood. We aimed to investigate the relationship between uACR and new-onset heart failure (HF) in type 2 diabetics. METHODS: We included 9287 Chinese participants with type 2 diabetes (T2D) but no heart failure (HF) who were assessed with uACR between 2014 and 2016. The participants were divided into three groups based on their baseline uACR: normal (< 3 mg/mmol), microalbuminuria (3–30 mg/mmol), and macroalbuminuria (≥ 30 mg/mmol). The relationship between uACR and new-onset HF was studied using Cox proportional hazard models and restricted cubic spline. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used to see if incorporating uACR into existing models could improve performance. RESULTS: 216 new-onset HF cases (2.33%) were recorded after a median follow-up of 4.05 years. When compared to normal uACR, elevated uACR was associated with a progressively increased risk of new-onset HF, ranging from microalbuminuria (adjusted HR, 2.21; 95% CI 1.59–3.06) to macroalbuminuria (adjusted HR, 6.02; 95% CI 4.11–8.80), and 1 standard deviation (SD) in ln (uACR) (adjusted HR, 1.89; 95% CI 1.68–2.13). The results were consistent across sex, estimated glomerular filtration rate, systolic blood pressure, and glycosylated hemoglobin subgroups. The addition of uACR to established HF risk models improved the HF risk prediction efficacy. CONCLUSIONS: Increasing uACR, even below the normal range, is an independent risk factor for new-onset HF in a type 2 diabetic population. Furthermore, uACR may improve HF risk prediction in community-based T2D patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-023-01796-6.