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Using the embryo-uterus statistical model to predict pregnancy chances by using cleavage stage morphokinetics and female age: two centre-specific prediction models and mutual validation

BACKGROUND: The predictive capability of time-lapse monitoring (TLM) selection algorithms is influenced by patient characteristics, type and quality of data included in the analysis and the used statistical methods. Previous studies excluded DET cycles of which only one embryo implanted, introducing...

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Autores principales: van Marion, Eva S., Baart, Esther B., Santos, Margarida, van Duijn, Linette, van Santbrink, Evert J. P., Steegers-Theunissen, Régine P. M., Laven, Joop S. E., Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: BioMed Central 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10041771/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36973721
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12958-023-01076-8
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author van Marion, Eva S.
Baart, Esther B.
Santos, Margarida
van Duijn, Linette
van Santbrink, Evert J. P.
Steegers-Theunissen, Régine P. M.
Laven, Joop S. E.
Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.
author_facet van Marion, Eva S.
Baart, Esther B.
Santos, Margarida
van Duijn, Linette
van Santbrink, Evert J. P.
Steegers-Theunissen, Régine P. M.
Laven, Joop S. E.
Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.
author_sort van Marion, Eva S.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: The predictive capability of time-lapse monitoring (TLM) selection algorithms is influenced by patient characteristics, type and quality of data included in the analysis and the used statistical methods. Previous studies excluded DET cycles of which only one embryo implanted, introducing bias into the data. Therefore, we wanted to develop a TLM prediction model that is able to predict pregnancy chances after both single- and double embryo transfer (SET and DET). METHODS: This is a retrospective study of couples (n = 1770) undergoing an in vitro fertilization cycle at the Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam (clinic A) or the Reinier de Graaf Hospital (clinic B). This resulted in 2058 transferred embryos with time-lapse and pregnancy outcome information. For each dataset a prediction model was established by using the Embryo-Uterus statistical model with the number of gestational sacs as the outcome variable. This process was followed by cross-validation. RESULTS: Prediction model A (based on data of clinic A) included female age, t3-t2 and t5-t4, and model B (clinic B) included female age, t2, t3-t2 and t5-t4. Internal validation showed overfitting of model A (calibration slope 0.765 and area under the curve (AUC) 0.60), and minor overfitting of model B (slope 0.915 and AUC 0.65). External validation showed that model A was capable of predicting pregnancy in the dataset of clinic B with an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.61–0.69; slope 1.223, 95% CI: 0.903–1.561). Model B was less accurate in predicting pregnancy in the dataset of clinic A (AUC 0.60, 95% CI: 0.56–0.65; slope 0.671, 95% CI: 0.422–0.939). CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates a novel approach to the development of a TLM prediction model by applying the EU statistical model. With further development and validation in clinical practice, our prediction model approach can aid in embryo selection and decision making for SET or DET.
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spelling pubmed-100417712023-03-28 Using the embryo-uterus statistical model to predict pregnancy chances by using cleavage stage morphokinetics and female age: two centre-specific prediction models and mutual validation van Marion, Eva S. Baart, Esther B. Santos, Margarida van Duijn, Linette van Santbrink, Evert J. P. Steegers-Theunissen, Régine P. M. Laven, Joop S. E. Eijkemans, Marinus J. C. Reprod Biol Endocrinol Research BACKGROUND: The predictive capability of time-lapse monitoring (TLM) selection algorithms is influenced by patient characteristics, type and quality of data included in the analysis and the used statistical methods. Previous studies excluded DET cycles of which only one embryo implanted, introducing bias into the data. Therefore, we wanted to develop a TLM prediction model that is able to predict pregnancy chances after both single- and double embryo transfer (SET and DET). METHODS: This is a retrospective study of couples (n = 1770) undergoing an in vitro fertilization cycle at the Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre Rotterdam (clinic A) or the Reinier de Graaf Hospital (clinic B). This resulted in 2058 transferred embryos with time-lapse and pregnancy outcome information. For each dataset a prediction model was established by using the Embryo-Uterus statistical model with the number of gestational sacs as the outcome variable. This process was followed by cross-validation. RESULTS: Prediction model A (based on data of clinic A) included female age, t3-t2 and t5-t4, and model B (clinic B) included female age, t2, t3-t2 and t5-t4. Internal validation showed overfitting of model A (calibration slope 0.765 and area under the curve (AUC) 0.60), and minor overfitting of model B (slope 0.915 and AUC 0.65). External validation showed that model A was capable of predicting pregnancy in the dataset of clinic B with an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI: 0.61–0.69; slope 1.223, 95% CI: 0.903–1.561). Model B was less accurate in predicting pregnancy in the dataset of clinic A (AUC 0.60, 95% CI: 0.56–0.65; slope 0.671, 95% CI: 0.422–0.939). CONCLUSION: Our study demonstrates a novel approach to the development of a TLM prediction model by applying the EU statistical model. With further development and validation in clinical practice, our prediction model approach can aid in embryo selection and decision making for SET or DET. BioMed Central 2023-03-27 /pmc/articles/PMC10041771/ /pubmed/36973721 http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12958-023-01076-8 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) ) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated in a credit line to the data.
spellingShingle Research
van Marion, Eva S.
Baart, Esther B.
Santos, Margarida
van Duijn, Linette
van Santbrink, Evert J. P.
Steegers-Theunissen, Régine P. M.
Laven, Joop S. E.
Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.
Using the embryo-uterus statistical model to predict pregnancy chances by using cleavage stage morphokinetics and female age: two centre-specific prediction models and mutual validation
title Using the embryo-uterus statistical model to predict pregnancy chances by using cleavage stage morphokinetics and female age: two centre-specific prediction models and mutual validation
title_full Using the embryo-uterus statistical model to predict pregnancy chances by using cleavage stage morphokinetics and female age: two centre-specific prediction models and mutual validation
title_fullStr Using the embryo-uterus statistical model to predict pregnancy chances by using cleavage stage morphokinetics and female age: two centre-specific prediction models and mutual validation
title_full_unstemmed Using the embryo-uterus statistical model to predict pregnancy chances by using cleavage stage morphokinetics and female age: two centre-specific prediction models and mutual validation
title_short Using the embryo-uterus statistical model to predict pregnancy chances by using cleavage stage morphokinetics and female age: two centre-specific prediction models and mutual validation
title_sort using the embryo-uterus statistical model to predict pregnancy chances by using cleavage stage morphokinetics and female age: two centre-specific prediction models and mutual validation
topic Research
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10041771/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36973721
http://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12958-023-01076-8
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