Predicting the Trajectories of Parents’ Relationship Well-Being During COVID-19 Lockdowns and Beyond: a Vulnerability, Stress and Adaptation Model Perspective

Strict lockdowns have been employed by many of the world’s nations as a public health response to COVID-19. However, concerns have been expressed as to how such public health responses disturb the human ecosystem. In this paper, we report on findings from a longitudinal study of Australian parents in which we investigated how state differences in government-mandated lockdowns affect the relationship well-being (i.e., relationship satisfaction and loneliness) of parents. We situated the study of the relational effects of strict lockdowns within the Vulnerability Stress Adaptation Model (VSAM, Karney & Bradbury, 1995) that considers the role of parents’ pre-existing vulnerabilities (i.e., psychological distress and attachment insecurity), life stressors (pre-pandemic and COVID-19 stressors), and adaptive relationship processes (constructive communication and perceived partner support). A total of 1942 parents completed 14 waves of assessments of relationship satisfaction and loneliness over a 13.5-month period as well as baseline assessments of personal vulnerabilities, life stressors, and adaptive relationship processes. Parents with high relationship adaptations and low vulnerabilities evidenced the highest relationship well-being (i.e., high satisfaction and low loneliness) during changes in lockdown restrictions, while parents with moderate relationship adaptations and vulnerabilities experienced the poorest well-being. Differences in state lockdown restrictions (i.e., Victoria [long and strict lockdown policy] vs all other states) were associated with differences in relationship well-being for parents with high relationship adaptations. Specifically, Victorian parents experienced significant declines in relationship well-being compared to non-Victorian parents. Our findings provide novel insights into how government-mandated social restrictions can disrupt the relational ecology of parents. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11121-023-01498-1.