Stage migration as a surrogate of survival in hepatocellular carcinoma treated with transarterial chemoembolization

Locoregional therapies, including transarterial chemoembolization (TACE), are recommended for the treatment of HCC; however, clinical trials evaluating their effectiveness have been complicated by a lack of validated surrogate outcomes. We aimed to evaluate if stage migration could serve as a potential surrogate of overall survival in patients undergoing TACE. APPROACH: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients with HCC who underwent TACE as initial therapy from 3 centers in the US from 2008 to 2019. The primary outcome was overall survival from the date of the first TACE treatment, and the primary exposure of interest was Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage migration to a more advanced stage within 6 months of TACE. Survival analysis was completed using Kaplan-Meier and multiple Cox proportional hazard models adjusted by the site. RESULTS: Of 651 eligible patients (51.9% Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage A and 39.6% stage B), 129 (19.6%) patients experienced stage migration within 6 months of TACE. Those with stage migration had larger tumors (5.6 vs. 4.2 cm, p < 0.01) and higher AFP levels (median 92 vs. 15 ng/mL, p < 0.01). In multivariate analysis, stage migration was significantly associated with worse survival (HR: 2.82, 95% CI: 2.66–2.98), with a median survival of 8.7 and 15.9 months in those with and without stage migration. Other predictors of worse survival included the White race, higher AFP levels, a higher number of tumors, and a larger maximum HCC diameter. CONCLUSION: Stage migration is associated with increased mortality after TACE in patients with HCC and could serve as a surrogate end point in clinical trials evaluating locoregional therapies such as TACE.