Can capital markets identify heterogeneous environmental investment strategies of firms? Evidence from China

Using a 2005–2020 sample of A-share listed companies in China’s heavily polluting industries, this paper divides environmental investment strategies into “light green,” “medium green,” and “deep green” dimensions and constructs a panel threshold model to investigate the impact of different environmental strategies on China’s stock market. The study found that environmental investment intensity has a double threshold effect on stock returns, “medium green” behavior helps improve stock returns, and “light green” and “deep green” behaviors are not conducive to stock returns. Institutional investors are more accurate than ordinary investors in identifying heterogeneous environmental strategies. The mechanism test shows that different environmental strategies affect stock returns through internal “value enhancement” and external “government subsidy” mechanisms. Moreover, “greenwashing” benefits for companies are short-lived; the market eventually imposes punitive pricing. These findings provide a reference for enterprise- and market-oriented green development systems.