Metabolic health and adiposity transitions and risks of type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular diseases: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Metabolic health status and levels of adiposity are prone to change over time. Mixed results have been reported regarding the extent by which changes in metabolic health and weight affect cardiometabolic risks. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to examine the association between transitions in metabolic health and adiposity status on risk of incident type 2 diabetes (T2DM) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. METHODS: A systematic literature search was conducted on MEDLINE and EMBASE through August 2022 for prospective cohort studies examining transitions in metabolic health and adiposity status and risk of incident T2DM and CVDs without restrictions on language or publication status. Meta-analysis was performed to summarize hazard ratios for T2DM and composite CVD events separately using random-effects model. RESULTS: A total of 17 studies were included. Compared to stable metabolically healthy status, transition to metabolically unhealthy status significantly increased the risk of incident T2DM and composite CVD events among individuals with normal weight and individuals with overweight/obesity. Compared to stable metabolically unhealthy status, transition to metabolically healthy status significantly lowered the risk among individuals with normal weight and individuals with overweight/obesity. When metabolic health status remained unchanged, progression from normal weight to overweight/obesity significantly increased risk of CVDs but not risk of T2DM. CONCLUSION: The impact of change in metabolic health on the risks of T2DM and CVD is more prominent than that of change to body mass index category. Obesity treatment should consider prioritizing improvement in metabolic health parameters over focusing on the extent of weight loss only. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13098-023-01025-w.