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Epidemic Waves and Exact Solutions of a Sequence of Nonlinear Differential Equations Connected to the SIR Model of Epidemics

The SIR model of epidemic spreading can be reduced to a nonlinear differential equation with an exponential nonlinearity. This differential equation can be approximated by a sequence of nonlinear differential equations with polynomial nonlinearities. The equations from the obtained sequence are trea...

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Autores principales: Vitanov, Nikolay K., Vitanov, Kaloyan N.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10048198/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36981326
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e25030438
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author Vitanov, Nikolay K.
Vitanov, Kaloyan N.
author_facet Vitanov, Nikolay K.
Vitanov, Kaloyan N.
author_sort Vitanov, Nikolay K.
collection PubMed
description The SIR model of epidemic spreading can be reduced to a nonlinear differential equation with an exponential nonlinearity. This differential equation can be approximated by a sequence of nonlinear differential equations with polynomial nonlinearities. The equations from the obtained sequence are treated by the Simple Equations Method (SEsM). This allows us to obtain exact solutions to some of these equations. We discuss several of these solutions. Some (but not all) of the obtained exact solutions can be used for the description of the evolution of epidemic waves. We discuss this connection. In addition, we use two of the obtained solutions to study the evolution of two of the COVID-19 epidemic waves in Bulgaria by a comparison of the solutions with the available data for the infected individuals.
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spelling pubmed-100481982023-03-29 Epidemic Waves and Exact Solutions of a Sequence of Nonlinear Differential Equations Connected to the SIR Model of Epidemics Vitanov, Nikolay K. Vitanov, Kaloyan N. Entropy (Basel) Article The SIR model of epidemic spreading can be reduced to a nonlinear differential equation with an exponential nonlinearity. This differential equation can be approximated by a sequence of nonlinear differential equations with polynomial nonlinearities. The equations from the obtained sequence are treated by the Simple Equations Method (SEsM). This allows us to obtain exact solutions to some of these equations. We discuss several of these solutions. Some (but not all) of the obtained exact solutions can be used for the description of the evolution of epidemic waves. We discuss this connection. In addition, we use two of the obtained solutions to study the evolution of two of the COVID-19 epidemic waves in Bulgaria by a comparison of the solutions with the available data for the infected individuals. MDPI 2023-03-01 /pmc/articles/PMC10048198/ /pubmed/36981326 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e25030438 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Vitanov, Nikolay K.
Vitanov, Kaloyan N.
Epidemic Waves and Exact Solutions of a Sequence of Nonlinear Differential Equations Connected to the SIR Model of Epidemics
title Epidemic Waves and Exact Solutions of a Sequence of Nonlinear Differential Equations Connected to the SIR Model of Epidemics
title_full Epidemic Waves and Exact Solutions of a Sequence of Nonlinear Differential Equations Connected to the SIR Model of Epidemics
title_fullStr Epidemic Waves and Exact Solutions of a Sequence of Nonlinear Differential Equations Connected to the SIR Model of Epidemics
title_full_unstemmed Epidemic Waves and Exact Solutions of a Sequence of Nonlinear Differential Equations Connected to the SIR Model of Epidemics
title_short Epidemic Waves and Exact Solutions of a Sequence of Nonlinear Differential Equations Connected to the SIR Model of Epidemics
title_sort epidemic waves and exact solutions of a sequence of nonlinear differential equations connected to the sir model of epidemics
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10048198/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36981326
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e25030438
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