A Clinical Prediction Model for Breast Cancer in Women Having Their First Mammogram

Background: Digital mammography is the most efficient screening and diagnostic modality for breast cancer (BC). However, the technology is not widely available in rural areas. This study aimed to construct a prediction model for BC in women scheduled for their first mammography at a breast center to prioritize patients on waiting lists. Methods: This retrospective cohort study analyzed breast clinic data from January 2013 to December 2017. Clinical parameters that were significantly associated with a BC diagnosis were used to construct predictive models using stepwise multiple logistic regression. The models’ discriminative capabilities were compared using receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs). Results: Data from 822 women were selected for analysis using an inverse probability weighting method. Significant risk factors were age, body mass index (BMI), family history of BC, and indicated symptoms (mass and/or nipple discharge). When these factors were used to construct a model, the model performance according to the Akaike criterion was 1387.9, and the AUC was 0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.76–0.87). Conclusion: In a resource-limited setting, the priority for a first mammogram should be patients with mass and/or nipple discharge, asymptomatic patients who are older or have high BMI, and women with a family history of BC.