Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Urban Resilience in Four Southern Regions of Xinjiang

Resilience theory plays a pivotal role in promoting sustainable urban development and the long-term stable development of the national economy. Based on the “scale-density-form” model of urban resilience, this paper shifts the perspective of urban resilience from the eastern region with higher level of economic development and better infrastructure construction to the arid northwest region with more fragile ecological environment and weaker urban development potential, which enriches the connotation and mechanism of urban resilience to a certain extent. Using ArcGIS platforms, statistical data and remote sensing data as data sources, this paper analyzes the urban resilience of four southern Xinjiang regions (Aksu Administrative Office, Kashgar Administrative Office, Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture and Hotan Administrative Office) in time and space from 2000 to 2020 using a three-dimensional resilience analysis framework based on scale, density and morphology. The results show that the urban de-development of the study area faces a strong scale safety constraint due to the small available land area in the study area, which leads to its small urban construction land area. The county- and city-scale elasticity levels of Aksu Administrative Office and Kashgar Administrative Office are higher than the average level of the study area, while most of the counties and cities in Kizilsu Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture and Hotan Administrative Office are lower than the average level of the study area, with large differences between counties and cities. The geographical location of the study area determines the backwardness of the region in terms of ideology, production methods and technology, which seriously restricts the development of local society and economy. In terms of density resilience, there are large differences among counties and cities in the study area, and the density resilience of Aksu, Kashgar and Kucha is much higher than that of other counties and cities. In terms of morphological resilience, with the increasing prominence of ecological status, the urban landscape layout of the study area has changed significantly, leading to changes in the distance between its blue-green landscape and gray-white landscape, which in turn causes changes in morphological resilience. Based on the above findings, initiatives and paths for resilience regulation in the study area are proposed in terms of scale, density and morphology. The study also has a reference value for local urban safety development.