Comparison of the prognostic value of a comprehensive set of predictors in identifying risk of metabolic-associated fatty liver disease among employed adults

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) is of concern in employed adults, while the crucial indicators in predicting MAFLD are understudied in this population. We aimed to investigate and compare the prediction performance of a set of indicators for MAFLD in employed adults. METHODS: A cross-sectional study recruiting 7968 employed adults was conducted in southwest China. MAFLD was assessed by abdominal ultrasonography and physical examination. Comprehensive indicators of demographics, anthropometric, lifestyle, psychological, and biochemical indicators were collected by questionnaire or physical examination. All indicators were evaluated for importance in predicting MAFLD by random forest. A prognostic model based on multivariate regression model was constructed to obtain a prognostic index. All indicators and prognostic index were compared to evaluate their prediction performance in predicting MAFLD by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and Decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: Triglyceride Glucose-Body Mass Index (TyG-BMI), BMI, TyG, triglyceride (TG)/high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (HDL-C), and TG ranked the top five important indicators, and TyG-BMI performed the most accurate prediction of MAFLD according to the ROC curve, calibration plot and DCA. The area under the ROC curves (AUCs) of the five indicators were all over 0.7, with TyG-BMI (cut-off value: 218.284, sensitivity: 81.7%, specificity: 78.3%) suggesting the most sensitive and specific indicator. All five indicators showed higher prediction performance and net benefit than the prognostic model. CONCLUSION: This epidemiological study firstly compared a set of indicators to evaluate their prediction performance in predicting MAFLD risk among employed adults. Intervention targeting powerful predictors can be helpful to reduce the MAFLD risk among employed adults. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-15365-9.