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Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand

COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can spread rapidly. Controlling the spread through vaccination is one of the measures for activating immunization that helps to reduce the number of infected people. Different types of vaccines are effective in preventing and alleviating the symptoms of the dis...

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Autores principales: Intarapanya, Tanatorn, Suratanee, Apichat, Pattaradilokrat, Sittiporn, Plaimas, Kitiporn
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10056006/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36977177
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8030175
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author Intarapanya, Tanatorn
Suratanee, Apichat
Pattaradilokrat, Sittiporn
Plaimas, Kitiporn
author_facet Intarapanya, Tanatorn
Suratanee, Apichat
Pattaradilokrat, Sittiporn
Plaimas, Kitiporn
author_sort Intarapanya, Tanatorn
collection PubMed
description COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can spread rapidly. Controlling the spread through vaccination is one of the measures for activating immunization that helps to reduce the number of infected people. Different types of vaccines are effective in preventing and alleviating the symptoms of the disease in different ways. In this study, a mathematical model, SVIHR, was developed to assess the behavior of disease transmission in Thailand by considering the vaccine efficacy of different vaccine types and the vaccination rate. The equilibrium points were investigated and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] was calculated using a next-generation matrix to determine the stability of the equilibrium. We found that the disease-free equilibrium point was asymptotically stable if, and only if, [Formula: see text] , and the endemic equilibrium was asymptotically stable if, and only if, [Formula: see text]. The simulation results and the estimation of the parameters applied to the actual data in Thailand are reported. The sensitivity of parameters related to the basic reproduction number was compared with estimates of the effectiveness of pandemic controls. The simulations of different vaccine efficacies for different vaccine types were compared and the average mixing of vaccine types was reported to assess the vaccination policies. Finally, the trade-off between the vaccine efficacy and the vaccination rate was investigated, resulting in the essentiality of vaccine efficacy to restrict the spread of COVID-19.
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spelling pubmed-100560062023-03-30 Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand Intarapanya, Tanatorn Suratanee, Apichat Pattaradilokrat, Sittiporn Plaimas, Kitiporn Trop Med Infect Dis Article COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that can spread rapidly. Controlling the spread through vaccination is one of the measures for activating immunization that helps to reduce the number of infected people. Different types of vaccines are effective in preventing and alleviating the symptoms of the disease in different ways. In this study, a mathematical model, SVIHR, was developed to assess the behavior of disease transmission in Thailand by considering the vaccine efficacy of different vaccine types and the vaccination rate. The equilibrium points were investigated and the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] was calculated using a next-generation matrix to determine the stability of the equilibrium. We found that the disease-free equilibrium point was asymptotically stable if, and only if, [Formula: see text] , and the endemic equilibrium was asymptotically stable if, and only if, [Formula: see text]. The simulation results and the estimation of the parameters applied to the actual data in Thailand are reported. The sensitivity of parameters related to the basic reproduction number was compared with estimates of the effectiveness of pandemic controls. The simulations of different vaccine efficacies for different vaccine types were compared and the average mixing of vaccine types was reported to assess the vaccination policies. Finally, the trade-off between the vaccine efficacy and the vaccination rate was investigated, resulting in the essentiality of vaccine efficacy to restrict the spread of COVID-19. MDPI 2023-03-16 /pmc/articles/PMC10056006/ /pubmed/36977177 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8030175 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Intarapanya, Tanatorn
Suratanee, Apichat
Pattaradilokrat, Sittiporn
Plaimas, Kitiporn
Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand
title Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand
title_full Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand
title_fullStr Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand
title_short Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand
title_sort modeling the spread of covid-19 with the control of mixed vaccine types during the pandemic in thailand
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10056006/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36977177
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed8030175
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