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Projection of COVID-19 Positive Cases Considering Hybrid Immunity: Case Study in Tokyo
Since the emergence of COVID-19, the forecasting of new daily positive cases and deaths has been one of the essential elements in policy setting and medical resource management worldwide. An essential factor in forecasting is the modeling of susceptible populations and vaccination effectiveness (VE)...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10057330/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36992217 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11030633 |
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author | Kodera, Sachiko Takada, Akito Rashed, Essam A. Hirata, Akimasa |
author_facet | Kodera, Sachiko Takada, Akito Rashed, Essam A. Hirata, Akimasa |
author_sort | Kodera, Sachiko |
collection | PubMed |
description | Since the emergence of COVID-19, the forecasting of new daily positive cases and deaths has been one of the essential elements in policy setting and medical resource management worldwide. An essential factor in forecasting is the modeling of susceptible populations and vaccination effectiveness (VE) at the population level. Owing to the widespread viral transmission and wide vaccination campaign coverage, it becomes challenging to model the VE in an efficient and realistic manner, while also including hybrid immunity which is acquired through full vaccination combined with infection. Here, the VE model of hybrid immunity was developed based on an in vitro study and publicly available data. Computational replication of daily positive cases demonstrates a high consistency between the replicated and observed values when considering the effect of hybrid immunity. The estimated positive cases were relatively larger than the observed value without considering hybrid immunity. Replication of the daily positive cases and its comparison would provide useful information of immunity at the population level and thus serve as useful guidance for nationwide policy setting and vaccination strategies. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10057330 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-100573302023-03-30 Projection of COVID-19 Positive Cases Considering Hybrid Immunity: Case Study in Tokyo Kodera, Sachiko Takada, Akito Rashed, Essam A. Hirata, Akimasa Vaccines (Basel) Article Since the emergence of COVID-19, the forecasting of new daily positive cases and deaths has been one of the essential elements in policy setting and medical resource management worldwide. An essential factor in forecasting is the modeling of susceptible populations and vaccination effectiveness (VE) at the population level. Owing to the widespread viral transmission and wide vaccination campaign coverage, it becomes challenging to model the VE in an efficient and realistic manner, while also including hybrid immunity which is acquired through full vaccination combined with infection. Here, the VE model of hybrid immunity was developed based on an in vitro study and publicly available data. Computational replication of daily positive cases demonstrates a high consistency between the replicated and observed values when considering the effect of hybrid immunity. The estimated positive cases were relatively larger than the observed value without considering hybrid immunity. Replication of the daily positive cases and its comparison would provide useful information of immunity at the population level and thus serve as useful guidance for nationwide policy setting and vaccination strategies. MDPI 2023-03-13 /pmc/articles/PMC10057330/ /pubmed/36992217 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11030633 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Kodera, Sachiko Takada, Akito Rashed, Essam A. Hirata, Akimasa Projection of COVID-19 Positive Cases Considering Hybrid Immunity: Case Study in Tokyo |
title | Projection of COVID-19 Positive Cases Considering Hybrid Immunity: Case Study in Tokyo |
title_full | Projection of COVID-19 Positive Cases Considering Hybrid Immunity: Case Study in Tokyo |
title_fullStr | Projection of COVID-19 Positive Cases Considering Hybrid Immunity: Case Study in Tokyo |
title_full_unstemmed | Projection of COVID-19 Positive Cases Considering Hybrid Immunity: Case Study in Tokyo |
title_short | Projection of COVID-19 Positive Cases Considering Hybrid Immunity: Case Study in Tokyo |
title_sort | projection of covid-19 positive cases considering hybrid immunity: case study in tokyo |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10057330/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36992217 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/vaccines11030633 |
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