Dynamic Changes in Dietary Guideline Adherence and Its Association with All-Cause Mortality among Middle-Aged Chinese: A Longitudinal Study from the China Health and Nutrition Survey

The traditional approach to evaluating dietary quality is based on the achievement of the recommended intakes for each food group, which may overlook the achievement of correct relative proportions between food groups. We propose a “Dietary Non-Adherence Score (DNAS)” to assess the degree of similarity between subjects’ diets and those recommended in the Chinese Dietary Guidelines (CDG). Furthermore, it is important to incorporate the time-dependent nature of dietary quality into mortality prediction. This study investigated the association between long-term changes in adherence to the CDG and all-cause mortality. This study included 4533 participants aged 30–60 from the China Health and Nutrition Survey study with a median follow-up of 6.9 years. Intakes from 10 food groups were collected in 5 survey rounds from 2004 to 2015. We calculated the Euclidean distance between the intake of each food and the CDG-recommended intake, and then summed all the food groups as DNAS. Mortality was assessed in 2015. Latent class trajectory modeling was used to identify three classes of participants with distinct longitudinal trajectories of DNAS during the follow-up period. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess the risk of all-cause mortality in the three classes of people. Risk factors for death and confounders for diets were sequentially adjusted in the models. There were 187 deaths overall. Participants in the first class identified had consistently low and decreasing DNAS levels (coefficient = −0.020) over their lifetime, compared with a hazard ratio (HR) of 4.4 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.5, 12.7) for participants with consistently high and increasing DNAS levels (coefficient = 0.008). Those with moderate DNAS had an HR of 3.0 (95% CI: 1.1, 8.4). In summary, we find that people with consistently high adherence to CDG-recommended dietary patterns had a significantly lower mortality risk. DNAS is a promising method to assess diet quality.