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Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The variable landscape of Illinois creates a patchwork of tickborne disease risk to humans and domestic animals that can be predicted in part based on climate and landscape features. We fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Ambly...

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Autores principales: Kopsco, Heather L., Gronemeyer, Peg, Mateus-Pinilla, Nohra, Smith, Rebecca L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10059838/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36975898
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects14030213
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author Kopsco, Heather L.
Gronemeyer, Peg
Mateus-Pinilla, Nohra
Smith, Rebecca L.
author_facet Kopsco, Heather L.
Gronemeyer, Peg
Mateus-Pinilla, Nohra
Smith, Rebecca L.
author_sort Kopsco, Heather L.
collection PubMed
description SIMPLE SUMMARY: The variable landscape of Illinois creates a patchwork of tickborne disease risk to humans and domestic animals that can be predicted in part based on climate and landscape features. We fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and a newly invading tick species, Amblyomma maculatum using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables and identified numerous environmental niche factors that are associated with the presence of these vectors in current and future climate scenarios within the state. As the environment changes over the coming decades, the distribution of these tick species will change as they adapt to the increasing temperatures and precipitation alterations. Knowing where ticks may concentrate will be important to anticipating, preventing, and treating tickborne disease. ABSTRACT: The greater U.S. Midwest is on the leading edge of tick and tick-borne disease (TBD) expansion, with tick and TBD encroachment into Illinois occurring from both the northern and the southern regions. To assess the historical and future habitat suitability of four ticks of medical concern within the state, we fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and a newly invading species, Amblyomma maculatum using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables for the periods of 1970–2000, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080. Ensemble model projections for the historical climate were consistent with known distributions of each species but predicted the habitat suitability of A. maculatum to be much greater throughout Illinois than what known distributions demonstrate. The presence of forests and wetlands were the most important landcover classes predicting the occurrence of all tick species. As the climate warmed, the expected distribution of all species became strongly responsive to precipitation and temperature variables, particularly precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean diurnal range, as well as proximity to forest cover and water sources. The suitable habitat for I. scapularis, A. americanum, and A. maculatum was predicted to significantly narrow in the 2050 climate scenario and then increase more broadly statewide in the 2070 scenario but at reduced likelihoods. Predicting where ticks may invade and concentrate as the climate changes will be important to anticipate, prevent, and treat TBD in Illinois.
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spelling pubmed-100598382023-03-30 Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA Kopsco, Heather L. Gronemeyer, Peg Mateus-Pinilla, Nohra Smith, Rebecca L. Insects Article SIMPLE SUMMARY: The variable landscape of Illinois creates a patchwork of tickborne disease risk to humans and domestic animals that can be predicted in part based on climate and landscape features. We fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and a newly invading tick species, Amblyomma maculatum using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables and identified numerous environmental niche factors that are associated with the presence of these vectors in current and future climate scenarios within the state. As the environment changes over the coming decades, the distribution of these tick species will change as they adapt to the increasing temperatures and precipitation alterations. Knowing where ticks may concentrate will be important to anticipating, preventing, and treating tickborne disease. ABSTRACT: The greater U.S. Midwest is on the leading edge of tick and tick-borne disease (TBD) expansion, with tick and TBD encroachment into Illinois occurring from both the northern and the southern regions. To assess the historical and future habitat suitability of four ticks of medical concern within the state, we fit individual and mean-weighted ensemble species distribution models for Ixodes scapularis, Amblyomma americanum, Dermacentor variabilis, and a newly invading species, Amblyomma maculatum using a variety of landscape and mean climate variables for the periods of 1970–2000, 2041–2060, and 2061–2080. Ensemble model projections for the historical climate were consistent with known distributions of each species but predicted the habitat suitability of A. maculatum to be much greater throughout Illinois than what known distributions demonstrate. The presence of forests and wetlands were the most important landcover classes predicting the occurrence of all tick species. As the climate warmed, the expected distribution of all species became strongly responsive to precipitation and temperature variables, particularly precipitation of the warmest quarter and mean diurnal range, as well as proximity to forest cover and water sources. The suitable habitat for I. scapularis, A. americanum, and A. maculatum was predicted to significantly narrow in the 2050 climate scenario and then increase more broadly statewide in the 2070 scenario but at reduced likelihoods. Predicting where ticks may invade and concentrate as the climate changes will be important to anticipate, prevent, and treat TBD in Illinois. MDPI 2023-02-21 /pmc/articles/PMC10059838/ /pubmed/36975898 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects14030213 Text en © 2023 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Kopsco, Heather L.
Gronemeyer, Peg
Mateus-Pinilla, Nohra
Smith, Rebecca L.
Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA
title Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA
title_full Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA
title_fullStr Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA
title_full_unstemmed Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA
title_short Current and Future Habitat Suitability Models for Four Ticks of Medical Concern in Illinois, USA
title_sort current and future habitat suitability models for four ticks of medical concern in illinois, usa
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10059838/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36975898
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/insects14030213
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