ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale score as the predictor of all-cause mortality in Poland and Czechia

BACKGROUND: The ATHLOS consortium (Aging Trajectories of Health–Longitudinal Opportunities and Synergies) used data from several aging cohorts to develop a novel scale measuring healthy aging comprehensively and globally (ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale). In the present study, we assessed the predictive performance of the ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale for all-cause mortality in middle-aged and older adults. METHODS: Data from the Polish and Czech HAPIEE (Health Alcohol and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) prospective cohorts were used. There were 10,728 Poles and 8,857 Czechs recruited. The ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale score was calculated for all participants using data from the baseline examination carried out from 2002 to 2005. The follow-up for all-cause mortality was completed over 14 years. The associations between quintiles of the ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale and all-cause mortality were estimated using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: A total of 9,922 Polish and 8,518 Czech participants contributed ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale and mortality data with 1,828 and 1,700 deaths, respectively. After controlling for age, the ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale score was strongly associated with mortality in a graded fashion for both genders and countries (hazard ratios for lowest vs. highest quintile were 2.98 and 1.96 for Czech and Polish women and 2.83 and 2.66 for Czech and Polish men, respectively). The associations were only modestly attenuated by controlling for education, economic activity, and smoking, and there was further modest attenuation after additional adjustment for self-rated health. CONCLUSION: The novel ATHLOS Healthy Aging Scale is a good predictor of all-cause mortality in Central European urban populations, suggesting that this comprehensive measure is a useful tool for the assessment of the future health trajectories of older persons.