Nomogram for tumour response based on prospective cohorts of hepatocellular carcinoma patients receiving immunotherapy combined with targeted therapy: development and validation

BACKGROUND: Although immunotherapy combined with targeted therapy can be effective for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), not all HCC patients respond to this treatment. Models for predicting tumour response in HCC patients receiving immunotherapy combined with targeted therapy are lacking. METHODS: A total of 221 HCC patients from two independent prospective cohorts were retrospectively reviewed. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Standard clinical data were collected from each patient, including age, sex, hepatitis B infection status, laboratory tests, and immune target-related adverse events (itrAEs). Tumour responses were evaluated using the Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (RECIST) v1.1 guidelines. ItrAEs were assessed based on the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 4.0. The nomogram for tumour response prediction was constructed based on the results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis, areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were used to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the model, and calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square tests were performed to assess the calibration of the model. RESULTS: In the multivariate logistic regression analysis, a solitary tumour (P=0.006), neutropenia (P=0.003) and hypertension (P=0.042) independently predicted objective response (OR). A nomogram for OR was established with AUROCs of 0.734, 0.675, 0.730, and 0.707 in the training, validation, first-line and second-line treatment sets, respectively. Tumour sizes less than 5 cm (P=0.005), a solitary tumour (P=0.037), prognostic nutritional indices greater than or equal to 54.3 (P=0.037), neutropenia (P=0.004) and fatigue (P=0.041) independently predicted disease control (DC). A nomogram for DC was established with AUROCs of 0.804, 0.667, and 0.768 in the training, first-line and second-line treatment sets, respectively. All the Hosmer-Lemeshow tests and calibration curves showed acceptable calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The current provides clinicians with new insights into selecting patients for immunotherapy combined with targeted therapy and contributes to the development of immunotherapy for HCC. It is necessary to expand the scale of our research and perform prospective studies to verify our findings.