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Validation of the severe COVID-19 prognostic value of serum IL-6, IFN-λ3, CCL17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction
Although biomarkers to predict coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity have been studied since the early pandemic, no clear guidelines on using them in clinical practice are available. Here, we examined the ability of four biomarkers to predict disease severity using conserved sera from COVID-1...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Public Library of Science
2023
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10062661/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36996138 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0279897 |
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author | Yamamoto, Kei Ohsiro, Yusuke Suzuki, Tetsuya Suzuki, Michiyo Miura, Sayaka Nagashima, Maki Iwamoto, Noriko Takeuchi, Junko S. Kimura, Moto Sugiura, Wataru Nebuya, Satoru Kurokawa, Masato Ohmagari, Norio |
author_facet | Yamamoto, Kei Ohsiro, Yusuke Suzuki, Tetsuya Suzuki, Michiyo Miura, Sayaka Nagashima, Maki Iwamoto, Noriko Takeuchi, Junko S. Kimura, Moto Sugiura, Wataru Nebuya, Satoru Kurokawa, Masato Ohmagari, Norio |
author_sort | Yamamoto, Kei |
collection | PubMed |
description | Although biomarkers to predict coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity have been studied since the early pandemic, no clear guidelines on using them in clinical practice are available. Here, we examined the ability of four biomarkers to predict disease severity using conserved sera from COVID-19 patients who received inpatient care between January 1, 2020 and September 21, 2021 at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, collected at the appropriate time for prediction. We predicted illness severity in two situations: 1) prediction of future oxygen administration for patients without oxygen support within 8 days of onset (Study 1) and 2) prediction of future mechanical ventilation support (excluding non-invasive positive pressure ventilation) or death of patients within 4 days of the start of oxygen administration (Study 2). Interleukin-6, IFN-λ3, thymus and activation-regulated chemokine, and calprotectin were measured retrospectively. Other laboratory and clinical information were collected from medical records. AUCs were calculated from ROC curves and compared for the predictive ability of the four biomarkers. Study 1 included 18 patients, five of whom had developed oxygen needs. Study 2 included 45 patients, 13 of whom required ventilator management or died. In Study 1, IFN-λ3 showed a good predictive ability with an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.76–1.00). In Study 2, the AUC of each biomarker was 0.70–0.74. The number of biomarkers above the cutoff showed the possibility of good prediction with an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.75–0.97). When two or more biomarkers were positive, sensitivity and specificity were 0.92 and 0.63, respectively. In terms of biomarker testing at times when prognostication may be clinically useful, IFN-λ3 was predictive of oxygenation demand and a combination of the four biomarkers was predictive of mechanical ventilator requirement. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10062661 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-100626612023-03-31 Validation of the severe COVID-19 prognostic value of serum IL-6, IFN-λ3, CCL17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction Yamamoto, Kei Ohsiro, Yusuke Suzuki, Tetsuya Suzuki, Michiyo Miura, Sayaka Nagashima, Maki Iwamoto, Noriko Takeuchi, Junko S. Kimura, Moto Sugiura, Wataru Nebuya, Satoru Kurokawa, Masato Ohmagari, Norio PLoS One Research Article Although biomarkers to predict coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity have been studied since the early pandemic, no clear guidelines on using them in clinical practice are available. Here, we examined the ability of four biomarkers to predict disease severity using conserved sera from COVID-19 patients who received inpatient care between January 1, 2020 and September 21, 2021 at the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, collected at the appropriate time for prediction. We predicted illness severity in two situations: 1) prediction of future oxygen administration for patients without oxygen support within 8 days of onset (Study 1) and 2) prediction of future mechanical ventilation support (excluding non-invasive positive pressure ventilation) or death of patients within 4 days of the start of oxygen administration (Study 2). Interleukin-6, IFN-λ3, thymus and activation-regulated chemokine, and calprotectin were measured retrospectively. Other laboratory and clinical information were collected from medical records. AUCs were calculated from ROC curves and compared for the predictive ability of the four biomarkers. Study 1 included 18 patients, five of whom had developed oxygen needs. Study 2 included 45 patients, 13 of whom required ventilator management or died. In Study 1, IFN-λ3 showed a good predictive ability with an AUC of 0.92 (95% CI 0.76–1.00). In Study 2, the AUC of each biomarker was 0.70–0.74. The number of biomarkers above the cutoff showed the possibility of good prediction with an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.75–0.97). When two or more biomarkers were positive, sensitivity and specificity were 0.92 and 0.63, respectively. In terms of biomarker testing at times when prognostication may be clinically useful, IFN-λ3 was predictive of oxygenation demand and a combination of the four biomarkers was predictive of mechanical ventilator requirement. Public Library of Science 2023-03-30 /pmc/articles/PMC10062661/ /pubmed/36996138 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0279897 Text en © 2023 Yamamoto et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Yamamoto, Kei Ohsiro, Yusuke Suzuki, Tetsuya Suzuki, Michiyo Miura, Sayaka Nagashima, Maki Iwamoto, Noriko Takeuchi, Junko S. Kimura, Moto Sugiura, Wataru Nebuya, Satoru Kurokawa, Masato Ohmagari, Norio Validation of the severe COVID-19 prognostic value of serum IL-6, IFN-λ3, CCL17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction |
title | Validation of the severe COVID-19 prognostic value of serum IL-6, IFN-λ3, CCL17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction |
title_full | Validation of the severe COVID-19 prognostic value of serum IL-6, IFN-λ3, CCL17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction |
title_fullStr | Validation of the severe COVID-19 prognostic value of serum IL-6, IFN-λ3, CCL17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction |
title_full_unstemmed | Validation of the severe COVID-19 prognostic value of serum IL-6, IFN-λ3, CCL17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction |
title_short | Validation of the severe COVID-19 prognostic value of serum IL-6, IFN-λ3, CCL17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction |
title_sort | validation of the severe covid-19 prognostic value of serum il-6, ifn-λ3, ccl17, and calprotectin considering the timing of clinical need for prediction |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10062661/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36996138 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0279897 |
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