An experience- and preference-based EQ-5D-3L value set derived using 18 months of longitudinal data in patients who sustained a fracture: results from the ICUROS

INTRODUCTION: EQ-5D-3L preference-based value sets are predominately based on hypothetical health states and derived in cross-sectional settings. Therefore, we derived an experience-based value set from a prospective observational study. METHODS: The International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic fractures Study (ICUROS) was a multinational study on fragility fractures, prospectively collecting EQ-5D-3L and Time trade-off (TTO) within two weeks after fracture (including pre-fracture recall), and at 4, 12, and 18 months thereafter. We derived an EQ-5D-3L value set by regressing the TTO values on the ten impairment levels in the EQ-5D-3L. We explored the potential for response shift and whether preferences for domains vary systematically with prior impairment in that domain. Finally, we compared the value set to 25 other EQ-5D-3L preference-based value sets. RESULTS: TTO data were available for 12,954 EQ-5D-3L health states in 4683 patients. All coefficients in the value set had the expected sign, were statistically significant, and increased monotonically with severity of impairment. We found evidence for response shift in mobility, self-care, and usual activities. The value set had good agreement with the only other experience- and preference-based value set, but poor agreement with all hypothetical value sets. CONCLUSIONS: We present an experience- and preference-based value set with high face validity. The study indicates that response shift may be important to account for when deriving value sets. Furthermore, the study suggests that perspective (experienced versus hypothetical) is more important than country setting or demographics for valuation of EQ-5D-3L health states. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11136-022-03303-y.