Natural land cover positively correlates with COVID-19 health outcomes

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) poses special challenges for societies, as the disease causes millions of deaths. Although the direct prevention measures affect the prevalence and mortality the most, the other indirect factors, including natural environments and economics, could not be neglected. Evaluating the effect of natural land cover on COVID-19 health outcomes is an urgent and crucial public health topic. METHODS: Here, we examine the relationships between natural land cover and the prevalence and mortality of COVID-19 in the United States. To probe the effects of long-term living with natural land cover, we extract county-level land cover data from 2001 to 2019. Based on statistically spatial tests, we employ the Spatial Simultaneous Autoregressive (SAC) Model to estimate natural land cover’s impact and monetary values on COVID-19 health outcomes. To examine the short-term effects of natural environments, we build a seasonal panel data set about the greenery index and COVID-19 health outcomes. The panel SAC model is used to detect the relationship between the greenery index and seasonal COVID-19 health outcomes. RESULTS: A 1% increase in open water or deciduous forest is associated with a 0.004-death and 0.163-conformed-case, or 0.006-death and 0.099-confirmed-case decrease in every 1,000 people. Converting them into monetary value, for the mortality, a 1% increase in open water, deciduous forest, or evergreen forest in a county is equivalent to a 212-, 313-, or 219-USD increase in household income in the long term. Moreover, for the prevalence, a 1% change in open water, deciduous forest, or mixed forest is worth a 382-, 230-, or 650-USD increase in household income. Furthermore, a rational development intensity is also critical to reduce the risk of the COVID-19 pandemic. More greenery in the short term is also linked to lower prevalence and mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our study underscores the importance of incorporating natural land cover as a means of mitigating the risks and negative consequences of future pandemics like COVID-19 and promoting overall public health. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-023-15484-3.