The incidence of non-affective psychotic disorders in low and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE: Global understanding of the epidemiological landscape of non-affective psychotic disorders (NAPD) is predominantly based on studies from high-income countries. We sought to systematically review and meta-analyse all incidence studies conducted in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). METHODS: We systematically searched four databases using terms for NAPD, incidence and LMICs. Citations were eligible for inclusion if: published between 1 January 1960 and 31 May 2022; wholly or partially conducted in an LMIC, and; containing data on NAPD incidence in the general adult population. Two independent raters assessed study quality according to previously published criteria. We conducted a narrative synthesis and random-effects meta-analyses where sufficient studies were available (N ≥ 5). RESULTS: We retrieved 11 421 records, of which 23 citations met inclusion criteria from 18 unique studies across 19 settings in 10 LMICs. Median study quality was 4 out of 7 (interquartile range: 3–6). The crude incidence of NAPD varied around 4.2 times, from 10.0 per 100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.7–11.4) in Brazil to 42.0 (95%CI 32.2–54.8) in India, with marked heterogeneity in methodologies and rates. Our 60-year review highlights the dearth of robust evidence on the incidence of psychotic disorders in LMICs. CONCLUSION: Without reliable, contemporary estimates of this fundamental cornerstone of population health, it is impossible to understand the true burden, distribution or causes of psychotic disorders in over 87% of the world’s population. A new, more equitable global mental health evidence base for NAPD is now urgently required. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00127-022-02397-6.