Development and validation of novel risk prediction models of breast cancer based on stanniocalcin‐1 level

PURPOSE: The function of stanniocalcin‐1 (STC‐1) in the oncogenesis and progression of tumors has been extensively studied. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between secreted STC‐1 and prognosis in patients with breast cancer (BC) and to determine whether STC‐1 could be a key prognostic factor in BC. METHODS: The STC‐1 level was measured by ELISA and clinical data from 1210 female patients with BC were used to develop and validate nomograms. We then verified the models through the plotting of ROC curves and calibration curves, calculating the C‐index, and performing decision curve analyses (DCA). RESULTS: The level of STC‐1 in the peripheral plasma was significantly correlated with the T stage, N stage, clinical stage, grade, hormone receptors, HER‐2 status, and tumor subtype. Cox regression analyses revealed that estrogen receptor(ER) status, N stage, and STC‐1 level were risk factors for overall survival (OS), whereas T stage, N stage, and STC‐1 level were independent prognostic factors for distant disease‐free survival (DDFS) and disease‐free survival (DFS). Both the ROC curve and the C‐index confirmed the high resolution of these models, while the DCA identified the feasibility of their practical application. In addition, the calibration curves indicated good consistency between the predicted and actual survival rates. CONCLUSION: Nomograms were created based on STC‐1 levels for 3‐, 5‐, and 7‐year OS, DDFS, and DFS of patients with BC respectively. As a key prognostic factor for BC, peripheral blood STC‐1 level can be used clinically as a liquid biopsy indicator.