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Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years

The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the curre...

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Autores principales: Jordan, James R., Miles, B. W. J., Gudmundsson, G. H., Jamieson, S. S. R., Jenkins, A., Stokes, C. R.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10067810/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37005432
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2
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author Jordan, James R.
Miles, B. W. J.
Gudmundsson, G. H.
Jamieson, S. S. R.
Jenkins, A.
Stokes, C. R.
author_facet Jordan, James R.
Miles, B. W. J.
Gudmundsson, G. H.
Jamieson, S. S. R.
Jenkins, A.
Stokes, C. R.
author_sort Jordan, James R.
collection PubMed
description The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the current ocean regime, with only limited intrusions of mCDW, the EAIS will likely gain mass over the next 200 years due to the increased precipitation from a warming atmosphere outweighing increased ice discharge due to ice-shelf melting. However, if the ocean regime were to become dominated by greater mCDW intrusions, the EAIS would have a negative mass balance, contributing up to 48 mm of SLE over this time period. Our modelling finds George V Land to be particularly at risk to increased ocean induced melting. With warmer oceans, we also find that a mid range RCP4.5 emissions scenario is likely to result in a more negative mass balance than a high RCP8.5 emissions scenario, as the relative difference between increased precipitation due to a warming atmosphere and increased ice discharge due to a warming ocean is more negative in the mid range RCP4.5 emission scenario.
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spelling pubmed-100678102023-04-04 Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years Jordan, James R. Miles, B. W. J. Gudmundsson, G. H. Jamieson, S. S. R. Jenkins, A. Stokes, C. R. Nat Commun Article The East Antarctic Ice Sheet (EAIS) is currently surrounded by relatively cool water, but climatic shifts have the potential to increase basal melting via intrusions of warm modified Circumpolar Deep Water (mCDW) onto the continental shelf. Here we use an ice sheet model to show that under the current ocean regime, with only limited intrusions of mCDW, the EAIS will likely gain mass over the next 200 years due to the increased precipitation from a warming atmosphere outweighing increased ice discharge due to ice-shelf melting. However, if the ocean regime were to become dominated by greater mCDW intrusions, the EAIS would have a negative mass balance, contributing up to 48 mm of SLE over this time period. Our modelling finds George V Land to be particularly at risk to increased ocean induced melting. With warmer oceans, we also find that a mid range RCP4.5 emissions scenario is likely to result in a more negative mass balance than a high RCP8.5 emissions scenario, as the relative difference between increased precipitation due to a warming atmosphere and increased ice discharge due to a warming ocean is more negative in the mid range RCP4.5 emission scenario. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-04-01 /pmc/articles/PMC10067810/ /pubmed/37005432 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Jordan, James R.
Miles, B. W. J.
Gudmundsson, G. H.
Jamieson, S. S. R.
Jenkins, A.
Stokes, C. R.
Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_full Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_fullStr Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_full_unstemmed Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_short Increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in East Antarctica during the next 200 years
title_sort increased warm water intrusions could cause mass loss in east antarctica during the next 200 years
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10067810/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37005432
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37553-2
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