A prediction model of nodal metastasis in cN0 oral squamous cell carcinoma using metabolic and pathological variables

BACKGROUND: The efficacy of (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose ((18)F-FDG) Positron Emission Tomography/Computed Tomography(PET/CT) in evaluating the neck status in clinically node-negative (cN0) oral squamous cell carcinoma(OSCC) patients was still unsatisfying. We tried to develop a prediction model for nodal metastasis in cN0 OSCC patients by using metabolic and pathological variables. METHODS: Consecutive cN0 OSCC patients with preoperative (18)F-FDG PET/CT, subsequent surgical resection of primary tumor and neck dissection were included. Ninety-five patients who underwent PET/CT scanning in Shanghai ninth people’s hospital were identified as training cohort, and another 46 patients who imaged in Shanghai Universal Medical Imaging Diagnostic Center were selected as validation cohort. Nodal-status-related variables in the training cohort were selected by multivariable regression after using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO). A nomogram was constructed with significant variables for the risk prediction of nodal metastasis. Finally, nomogram performance was determined by its discrimination, calibration, and clinical usefulness. RESULTS: Nodal maximum standardized uptake value(nodal SUVmax) and pathological T stage were selected as significant variables. A prediction model incorporating the two variables was used to plot a nomogram. The area under the curve was 0.871(Standard Error [SE], 0.035; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 0.787–0.931) in the training cohort, and 0.809(SE, 0.069; 95% CI, 0.666–0.910) in the validation cohort, with good calibration demonstrated. CONCLUSIONS: A prediction model incorporates metabolic and pathological variables has good performance for predicting nodal metastasis in cN0 OSCC patients. However, further studies with large populations are needed to verify our findings. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-023-00552-z.