Forensic age estimation in males by MRI based on the medial epiphysis of the clavicle

Increasing cross-border migration has brought forensic age assessment into focus in recent decades. Forensic age estimation is based on the three pillars: physical and medical constitution, bone age, and tooth age. Part of the bone age examination includes the assessment of the medial end of the clavicles when the hand bones are already fully developed and a minority must be excluded. Recent research has brought MRI to the forefront as a radiation-free alternative for age assessment. However, there exits only a few studies with large sample size regarding the clavicles and with controversies about staging, motion artifacts, and exclusion based on anatomic norm variants. In the current prospective study, 338 central European male individuals between 13 and 24 years of age underwent MRI examination of the sternoclavicular region. Development was assessed by three blinded raters according to the staging system described by Schmeling et al. and Kellinghaus et al. and related to age by descriptive statistics and transition analyses with a cumulative probit model. In addition, reliability calculations were performed. No statistically significant developmental difference was found between the left and right clavicles. Inter-rater agreement was only moderate, but intra-rater agreement, on the other hand, was good. Stage 3c had a minimum age of 19.36 years and appears to be a good indicator of proof of majority. The minimum age of stage 4 was lower compared with other studies, 20.18 years, and therefore seems not to be an indicator of age of 21 years. In conclusion, we confirmed the value of clavicular MRI in the age estimation process. The transition analysis model is a good approach to circumvent the problems of age mimicry and samples that are not fully equilibrated. Given the moderate agreement between raters, a consensus reading is recommended.