Third molar eruption in orthopantomograms as a feature for forensic age assessment—a comparison study of different classification systems

Evaluation of third molar eruption represents an established method for age assessment of living individuals. Different classification systems are available for the radiological assessment of third molar eruption. The aim of this study was to identify the most accurate and reliable classification system for the mandibular third molar eruption on orthopantomograms (OPG). We compared the method of Olze et al. (2012) with the method of Willmot et al. (2018) and a newly derived classification system using OPGs from 211 individuals aged 15–25 years. The assessments were performed by three experienced examiners. One examiner evaluated all radiographs twice. The correlation between age and stage was investigated and the inter- and intra-rater reliability was estimated for all three methods. Correlation between stage and age was similar between classification systems, although higher in the data from males (Spearman’s rho ranging from 0.568 to 0.583) than from females (0.440 to 0.446). Inter- and intra-rater reliability measures were similar across methods and invariant on sex, with overlapping confidence intervals, although the highest point estimates for both intra- and inter-rater reliability were for the method by Olze et al. with Krippendorf’s alpha values of 0.904 (95% confidence interval 0.854, 0.954) and 0.797 (95% confidence interval 0.744, 0.850). It was concluded that the method of Olze et al. from 2012 is a reliable method for practical application and future studies.