DNA methylation-based age estimation for adults and minors: considering sex-specific differences and non-linear correlations

DNA methylation patterns change during human lifetime; thus, they can be used to estimate an individual’s age. It is known, however, that correlation between DNA methylation and aging might not be linear and that the sex might influence the methylation status. In this study, we conducted a comparative evaluation of linear and several non-linear regressions, as well as sex-specific versus unisex models. Buccal swab samples from 230 donors aged 1 to 88 years were analyzed using a minisequencing multiplex array. Samples were divided into a training set (n = 161) and a validation set (n = 69). The training set was used for a sequential replacement regression and a simultaneous 10-fold cross-validation. The resulting model was improved by including a cut-off of 20 years, dividing the younger individuals with non-linear from the older individuals with linear dependence between age and methylation status. Sex-specific models were developed and improved prediction accuracy in females but not in males, which might be explained by a small sample set. We finally established a non-linear, unisex model combining the markers EDARADD, KLF14, ELOVL2, FHL2, C1orf132, and TRIM59. While age- and sex-adjustments did not generally improve the performance of our model, we discuss how other models and large cohorts might benefit from such adjustments. Our model showed a cross-validated MAD and RMSE of 4.680 and 6.436 years in the training set and of 4.695 and 6.602 years in the validation set, respectively. We briefly explain how to apply the model for age prediction. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00414-023-02967-6.