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Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability

While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast...

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Autores principales: Dangendorf, Sönke, Hendricks, Noah, Sun, Qiang, Klinck, John, Ezer, Tal, Frederikse, Thomas, Calafat, Francisco M., Wahl, Thomas, Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10086026/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37037819
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37649-9
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author Dangendorf, Sönke
Hendricks, Noah
Sun, Qiang
Klinck, John
Ezer, Tal
Frederikse, Thomas
Calafat, Francisco M.
Wahl, Thomas
Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.
author_facet Dangendorf, Sönke
Hendricks, Noah
Sun, Qiang
Klinck, John
Ezer, Tal
Frederikse, Thomas
Calafat, Francisco M.
Wahl, Thomas
Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.
author_sort Dangendorf, Sönke
collection PubMed
description While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr(−1) since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the simulated forced response is removed from observations, the residuals are neither historically unprecedented nor inconsistent with internal variability in simulations. A large fraction of the residuals is consistent with wind driven Rossby waves in the tropical North Atlantic. This indicates that this ongoing acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and internal climate variability.
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spelling pubmed-100860262023-04-12 Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability Dangendorf, Sönke Hendricks, Noah Sun, Qiang Klinck, John Ezer, Tal Frederikse, Thomas Calafat, Francisco M. Wahl, Thomas Törnqvist, Torbjörn E. Nat Commun Article While there is evidence for an acceleration in global mean sea level (MSL) since the 1960s, its detection at local levels has been hampered by the considerable influence of natural variability on the rate of MSL change. Here we report a MSL acceleration in tide gauge records along the U.S. Southeast and Gulf coasts that has led to rates (>10 mm yr(−1) since 2010) that are unprecedented in at least 120 years. We show that this acceleration is primarily induced by an ocean dynamic signal exceeding the externally forced response from historical climate model simulations. However, when the simulated forced response is removed from observations, the residuals are neither historically unprecedented nor inconsistent with internal variability in simulations. A large fraction of the residuals is consistent with wind driven Rossby waves in the tropical North Atlantic. This indicates that this ongoing acceleration represents the compounding effects of external forcing and internal climate variability. Nature Publishing Group UK 2023-04-10 /pmc/articles/PMC10086026/ /pubmed/37037819 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37649-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2023 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Dangendorf, Sönke
Hendricks, Noah
Sun, Qiang
Klinck, John
Ezer, Tal
Frederikse, Thomas
Calafat, Francisco M.
Wahl, Thomas
Törnqvist, Torbjörn E.
Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
title Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
title_full Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
title_fullStr Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
title_full_unstemmed Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
title_short Acceleration of U.S. Southeast and Gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
title_sort acceleration of u.s. southeast and gulf coast sea-level rise amplified by internal climate variability
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10086026/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37037819
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-37649-9
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