Derivation and validation of a simple multidimensional index incorporating exercise capacity parameters for survival prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

INTRODUCTION: The gender-age-physiology (GAP) index is an easy-to-use baseline mortality prediction model in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). The GAP index does not incorporate exercise capacity parameters such as 6 min walk distance (6MWD) or exertional hypoxia. We evaluated if the addition of 6MWD and exertional hypoxia to the GAP index improves survival prediction in IPF. METHODS: Patients with IPF were identified at a tertiary care referral centre. Discrimination and calibration of the original GAP index were assessed. The cohort was then randomly divided into a derivation and validation set and performance of the GAP index with the addition of 6MWD and exertional hypoxia was evaluated. A final model was selected based on improvement in discrimination. Application of this model was then evaluated in a geographically distinct external cohort. RESULTS: There were 562 patients with IPF identified in the internal cohort. Discrimination of the original GAP index was measured by a C-statistic of 0.676 (95% CI 0.635 to 0.717) and overestimated observed risk. 6MWD and exertional hypoxia were strongly predictive of mortality. The addition of these variables to the GAP index significantly improved model discrimination. A revised index incorporating exercise capacity parameters was constructed and performed well in the internal validation set (C-statistic: 0.752; 95% CI 0.701 to 0.802, difference in C-statistic compared with the refit GAP index: 0.050; 95% CI 0.004 to 0.097) and external validation set (N=108 (C-statistic: 0.780; 95% CI 0.682 to 0.877)). CONCLUSION: A simple point-based baseline-risk prediction model incorporating exercise capacity predictors into the original GAP index may improve prognostication in patients with IPF.