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Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak

While the number of detected Monkeypox infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of its spread. The aim of this study is to estimate the true number of Monkeypox (detected and undetected) infections in most affect...

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Autores principales: Maruotti, Antonello, Böhning, Dankmar, Rocchetti, Irene, Ciccozzi, Massimo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10087513/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36029120
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28099
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author Maruotti, Antonello
Böhning, Dankmar
Rocchetti, Irene
Ciccozzi, Massimo
author_facet Maruotti, Antonello
Böhning, Dankmar
Rocchetti, Irene
Ciccozzi, Massimo
author_sort Maruotti, Antonello
collection PubMed
description While the number of detected Monkeypox infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of its spread. The aim of this study is to estimate the true number of Monkeypox (detected and undetected) infections in most affected countries. The question being asked is: How many cases have actually occurred? We propose a lower bound estimator for the true number of Monkeypox cases. The estimator is data‐driven and can be easily computed from the cumulative distributions of weekly cases. We focused on the ratio of the total estimated cases to the observed cases on July 31, 2022: The proportion of undetected cases was relevant in all countries, with countries whose estimated true number of infections could be more than three times the observed one. We provided a practical contribution to the understanding of the current Monkeypox wave and reliable estimates on how many undetected cases are going around in several countries, where the epidemic spreads differently.
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spelling pubmed-100875132023-04-12 Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak Maruotti, Antonello Böhning, Dankmar Rocchetti, Irene Ciccozzi, Massimo J Med Virol Short Communications While the number of detected Monkeypox infections are widely available, an understanding of the extent of undetected cases is urgently needed for an effective tackling of its spread. The aim of this study is to estimate the true number of Monkeypox (detected and undetected) infections in most affected countries. The question being asked is: How many cases have actually occurred? We propose a lower bound estimator for the true number of Monkeypox cases. The estimator is data‐driven and can be easily computed from the cumulative distributions of weekly cases. We focused on the ratio of the total estimated cases to the observed cases on July 31, 2022: The proportion of undetected cases was relevant in all countries, with countries whose estimated true number of infections could be more than three times the observed one. We provided a practical contribution to the understanding of the current Monkeypox wave and reliable estimates on how many undetected cases are going around in several countries, where the epidemic spreads differently. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-09-06 2023-01 /pmc/articles/PMC10087513/ /pubmed/36029120 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28099 Text en © 2022 The Authors. Journal of Medical Virology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
spellingShingle Short Communications
Maruotti, Antonello
Böhning, Dankmar
Rocchetti, Irene
Ciccozzi, Massimo
Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
title Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
title_full Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
title_fullStr Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
title_full_unstemmed Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
title_short Estimating the undetected infections in the Monkeypox outbreak
title_sort estimating the undetected infections in the monkeypox outbreak
topic Short Communications
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10087513/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36029120
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/jmv.28099
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