The burden of RSV-associated illness in children aged < 5 years, South Africa, 2011 to 2016

BACKGROUND: Vaccines and monoclonal antibodies to protect the very young infant against the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated illness are effective for limited time periods. We aimed to estimate age-specific burden to guide implementation strategies and cost-effectiveness analyses. METHODS: We combined case-based surveillance and ecological data to generate a national estimate of the burden of RSV-associated acute respiratory illness (ARI) and severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) in South African children aged < 5 years (2011–2016), including adjustment for attributable fraction. We estimated the RSV burden by month of life in the < 1-year age group, by 3-month intervals until 2 years, and then 12 monthly intervals to < 5 years for medically and non-medically attended illness. RESULTS: We estimated a mean annual total (medically and non-medically attended) of 264,112 (95% confidence interval (CI) 134,357–437,187) cases of RSV-associated ARI and 96,220 (95% CI 66,470–132,844) cases of RSV-associated SARI (4.7% and 1.7% of the population aged < 5 years, respectively). RSV-associated ARI incidence was highest in 2-month-old infants (18,361/100,000 population, 95% CI 9336–28,466). The highest incidence of RSV-associated SARI was in the < 1-month age group 14,674/100,000 (95% CI 11,175–19,645). RSV-associated deaths were highest in the first and second month of life (110.8 (95% CI 74.8–144.5) and 111.3 (86.0–135.8), respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Due to the high burden of RSV-associated illness, specifically SARI cases in young infants, maternal vaccination and monoclonal antibody products delivered at birth could prevent significant RSV-associated disease burden. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12916-023-02853-3.