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Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections
We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) and project its future changes under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the CESM2 has the best...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10092706/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36240009 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14910 |
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author | Shen, Cheng Zha, Jinlin Li, Zhibo Azorin‐Molina, Cesar Deng, Kaiqiang Minola, Lorenzo Chen, Deliang |
author_facet | Shen, Cheng Zha, Jinlin Li, Zhibo Azorin‐Molina, Cesar Deng, Kaiqiang Minola, Lorenzo Chen, Deliang |
author_sort | Shen, Cheng |
collection | PubMed |
description | We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) and project its future changes under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the CESM2 has the best ability in reproducing the observed NSWS trends, although all models examined are generally not doing well. Based on projections of CESM2, the global NSWS will decrease from 2021 to 2100 under all three SSPs. The projected NSWS declines significantly over the north of 20°N, especially across North America, Europe, and the mid‐to‐high latitudes of Asia; meanwhile, it increases over the south of 20°N. Under SSP585, there would be more light‐windy days and fewer strong‐windy days than those under SSP245, which leads to a significant global NSWS decline. Robust hemispheric‐asymmetric changes in the NSWS could be due to the temperature gradient in the two hemispheres under global warming, with −1.2%, −3.5%, and −4.1% in the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.8%, 1.0%, and 1.5% in the Southern Hemisphere, for the near‐term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060), and long‐term (2081–2100), respectively. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10092706 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-100927062023-04-13 Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections Shen, Cheng Zha, Jinlin Li, Zhibo Azorin‐Molina, Cesar Deng, Kaiqiang Minola, Lorenzo Chen, Deliang Ann N Y Acad Sci Original Articles We evaluate the performance of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models in simulating the observed global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed (NSWS) and project its future changes under three different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Results show that the CESM2 has the best ability in reproducing the observed NSWS trends, although all models examined are generally not doing well. Based on projections of CESM2, the global NSWS will decrease from 2021 to 2100 under all three SSPs. The projected NSWS declines significantly over the north of 20°N, especially across North America, Europe, and the mid‐to‐high latitudes of Asia; meanwhile, it increases over the south of 20°N. Under SSP585, there would be more light‐windy days and fewer strong‐windy days than those under SSP245, which leads to a significant global NSWS decline. Robust hemispheric‐asymmetric changes in the NSWS could be due to the temperature gradient in the two hemispheres under global warming, with −1.2%, −3.5%, and −4.1% in the Northern Hemisphere, and 0.8%, 1.0%, and 1.5% in the Southern Hemisphere, for the near‐term (2021–2040), mid‐term (2041–2060), and long‐term (2081–2100), respectively. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2022-10-14 2022-12 /pmc/articles/PMC10092706/ /pubmed/36240009 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14910 Text en © 2022 The Authors. Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of New York Academy of Sciences. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Original Articles Shen, Cheng Zha, Jinlin Li, Zhibo Azorin‐Molina, Cesar Deng, Kaiqiang Minola, Lorenzo Chen, Deliang Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections |
title | Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections |
title_full | Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections |
title_fullStr | Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections |
title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections |
title_short | Evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by CMIP6 models and their future projections |
title_sort | evaluation of global terrestrial near‐surface wind speed simulated by cmip6 models and their future projections |
topic | Original Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10092706/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36240009 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14910 |
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