The climate niche of the invasive tick species Hyalomma marginatum and Hyalomma rufipes (Ixodidae) with recommendations for modeling exercises

The finding of immature stages of some Hyalomma spp. feeding on migratory birds in Europe is unexceptional. The reports of adults of Hyalomma in Europe (incl. the British Isles) after successful molting from immatures have increased in recent years. It has been claimed that the warming of the target territory could favor the populations of these invasive ticks. Although evaluations of the impact on health or measures of adaptation are on their way, the climate niches of these species remain undefined, preventing preventive policies. This study delineates such niches for both Hyalomma marginatum (2,729 collection points) and Hyalomma rufipes (2,573 collections) in their distribution area, together with 11,669 points in Europe where Hyalomma spp. are believed to be absent in field surveys. Niche is defined from daily data of temperature, evapotranspiration, soil humidity and air saturation deficit (years 1970–2006). A set of eight variables (annual/seasonal accumulated temperature and vapor deficit) has the maximum discriminatory power separating the niches of both Hyalomma and a negative dataset, with an accuracy near 100%. The sites supporting H. marginatum or H. rufipes seem to be controlled by the joint action of the amount of water in the air (accounting for mortality) and the accumulated temperature (regulating development). The use of accumulated annual temperature as the only variable for predictive purposes of colonization of Hyalomma spp. looks unreliable, as far as values of water in air are excluded. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10493-023-00778-3.