Development and validation of a screening questionnaire for early identification of pregnant women at risk for excessive gestational weight gain

BACKGROUND: Excessive weight gain during pregnancy is associated with adverse health outcomes for mother and child. Intervention strategies to prevent excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) should consider women’s individual risk profile, however, no tool exists for identifying women at risk at an early stage. The aim of the present study was to develop and validate a screening questionnaire based on early risk factors for excessive GWG. METHODS: The cohort from the German “Gesund leben in der Schwangerschaft”/ “healthy living in pregnancy” (GeliS) trial was used to derive a risk score predicting excessive GWG. Sociodemographics, anthropometrics, smoking behaviour and mental health status were collected before week 12(th) of gestation. GWG was calculated using the last and the first weight measured during routine antenatal care. The data were randomly split into development and validation datasets with an 80:20 ratio. Using the development dataset, a multivariate logistic regression model with stepwise backward elimination was performed to identify salient risk factors associated with excessive GWG. The β coefficients of the variables were translated into a score. The risk score was validated by an internal cross-validation and externally with data from the FeLIPO study (GeliS pilot study). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC ROC) was used to estimate the predictive power of the score. RESULTS: 1790 women were included in the analysis, of whom 45.6% showed excessive GWG. High pre-pregnancy body mass index, intermediate educational level, being born in a foreign country, primiparity, smoking, and signs of depressive disorder were associated with the risk of excessive GWG and included in the screening questionnaire. The developed score varied from 0–15 and divided the women´s risk for excessive GWG into low (0–5), moderate (6–10) and high (11–15). The cross-validation and the external validation yielded a moderate predictive power with an AUC of 0.709 and 0.738, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our screening questionnaire is a simple and valid tool to identify pregnant women at risk for excessive GWG at an early stage. It could be used in routine care to provide targeted primary prevention measures to women at particular risk to gain excessive gestational weight. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT01958307, ClinicalTrials.gov, retrospectively registered 9 October 2013. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12884-023-05569-7.