Predicting long-term prognosis after percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with new onset ST-elevation myocardial infarction: development and external validation of a nomogram model

BACKGROUND: The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index is a well-established biomarker for insulin resistance (IR) that shows correlation with poor outcomes in patients with coronary artery disease. We aimed to integrate the TyG index with clinical data in a prediction nomogram for the long-term prognosis of new onset ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) following primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) . METHODS: This retrospective study included new-onset STEMI patients admitted at two heart centers for emergency PCI from December 2015 to March 2018 in development and independent validation cohorts. Potential risk factors were screened applying least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. Multiple Cox regression was employed to identify independent risk factors for prediction nomogram construction. Nomogram performance was assessed based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, calibration curves, Harrell’s C-index and decision curve analysis (DCA). RESULTS: In total, 404 patients were assigned to the development cohort and 169 to the independent validation cohort. The constructed nomogram included four clinical variables: age, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, and TyG index. The Harrell’s C-index values for the nomogram were 0.772 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.721–0.823) in the development cohort and 0.736 (95%CI: 0.656–0.816) in the independent validation cohort. Significant correlation was found between the predicted and actual outcomes in both cohorts, indicating that the nomogram is well calibrated. DCA confirmed the clinical value of the development prediction nomogram. CONCLUSIONS: Our validated prediction nomogram based on the TyG index and electronic health records data was shown to provide accurate and reliable discrimination of new-onset STEMI patients at high- and low-risk for major adverse cardiac events at 2, 3 and 5 years following emergency PCI. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-023-01820-9.