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With Bayesian estimation one can get all that Bayes factors offer, and more

In classical statistics, there is a close link between null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and parameter estimation via confidence intervals. However, for the Bayesian counterpart, a link between null hypothesis Bayesian testing (NHBT) and Bayesian estimation via a posterior distribution is...

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Autores principales: Tendeiro, Jorge N., Kiers, Henk A. L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10104944/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36085233
http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-022-02164-3
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author Tendeiro, Jorge N.
Kiers, Henk A. L.
author_facet Tendeiro, Jorge N.
Kiers, Henk A. L.
author_sort Tendeiro, Jorge N.
collection PubMed
description In classical statistics, there is a close link between null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and parameter estimation via confidence intervals. However, for the Bayesian counterpart, a link between null hypothesis Bayesian testing (NHBT) and Bayesian estimation via a posterior distribution is less straightforward, but does exist, and has recently been reiterated by Rouder, Haaf, and Vandekerckhove (2018). It hinges on a combination of a point mass probability and a probability density function as prior (denoted as the spike-and-slab prior). In the present paper, it is first carefully explained how the spike-and-slab prior is defined, and how results can be derived for which proofs were not given in Rouder, Haaf, and Vandekerckhove (2018). Next, it is shown that this spike-and-slab prior can be approximated by a pure probability density function with a rectangular peak around the center towering highly above the remainder of the density function. Finally, we will indicate how this ‘hill-and-chimney’ prior may in turn be approximated by fully continuous priors. In this way, it is shown that NHBT results can be approximated well by results from estimation using a strongly peaked prior, and it is noted that the estimation itself offers more than merely the posterior odds on which NHBT is based. Thus, it complies with the strong APA requirement of not just mentioning testing results but also offering effect size information. It also offers a transparent perspective on the NHBT approach employing a prior with a strong peak around the chosen point null hypothesis value.
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spelling pubmed-101049442023-04-16 With Bayesian estimation one can get all that Bayes factors offer, and more Tendeiro, Jorge N. Kiers, Henk A. L. Psychon Bull Rev Theoretical/Review In classical statistics, there is a close link between null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and parameter estimation via confidence intervals. However, for the Bayesian counterpart, a link between null hypothesis Bayesian testing (NHBT) and Bayesian estimation via a posterior distribution is less straightforward, but does exist, and has recently been reiterated by Rouder, Haaf, and Vandekerckhove (2018). It hinges on a combination of a point mass probability and a probability density function as prior (denoted as the spike-and-slab prior). In the present paper, it is first carefully explained how the spike-and-slab prior is defined, and how results can be derived for which proofs were not given in Rouder, Haaf, and Vandekerckhove (2018). Next, it is shown that this spike-and-slab prior can be approximated by a pure probability density function with a rectangular peak around the center towering highly above the remainder of the density function. Finally, we will indicate how this ‘hill-and-chimney’ prior may in turn be approximated by fully continuous priors. In this way, it is shown that NHBT results can be approximated well by results from estimation using a strongly peaked prior, and it is noted that the estimation itself offers more than merely the posterior odds on which NHBT is based. Thus, it complies with the strong APA requirement of not just mentioning testing results but also offering effect size information. It also offers a transparent perspective on the NHBT approach employing a prior with a strong peak around the chosen point null hypothesis value. Springer US 2022-09-09 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10104944/ /pubmed/36085233 http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-022-02164-3 Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Theoretical/Review
Tendeiro, Jorge N.
Kiers, Henk A. L.
With Bayesian estimation one can get all that Bayes factors offer, and more
title With Bayesian estimation one can get all that Bayes factors offer, and more
title_full With Bayesian estimation one can get all that Bayes factors offer, and more
title_fullStr With Bayesian estimation one can get all that Bayes factors offer, and more
title_full_unstemmed With Bayesian estimation one can get all that Bayes factors offer, and more
title_short With Bayesian estimation one can get all that Bayes factors offer, and more
title_sort with bayesian estimation one can get all that bayes factors offer, and more
topic Theoretical/Review
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10104944/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36085233
http://dx.doi.org/10.3758/s13423-022-02164-3
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