Application of the metal ions as potential population biomarkers for wastewater-based epidemiology: estimating tobacco consumption in Southern China

Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) is an objective approach for the estimation of population-level exposure to a wide range of substances, in which the use of a population biomarker (PB) could significantly reduce back-calculation errors. Although some endogenous or exogenous compounds such as cotinine and other hormones have been developed as PBs, more PBs still need to be identified and evaluated. This study aimed to propose a novel method to estimate population parameters from the mass load of metal ion biomarkers in wastewater, and estimate the consumption of tobacco in 24 cities in Southern China using the developed method. Daily wastewater samples were collected from 234 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in 24 cities in Southern China. Atomic absorption spectroscopy (AAS) was applied to determine the concentrations of common health-related metal ions in wastewater, including sodium (Na), potassium (K), magnesium (Mg), calcium (Ca), iron (Fe), and zinc (Zn), and compared them with the daily mass load of cotinine corresponding to catchment populations. The concentrations of cotinine in wastewater samples were measured using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. There were clear and strong correlations between the target metal ion equivalent population and census data. The correlation coefficients (R) were R(K) = 0.78, R(Na) = 0.66, R(Ca) = 0.81, R(Mg) = 0.77, and R(Fe) = 0.69, at p < 0.01 and R(2) > 0.6. Subsequently, the combination of WBE and metal ion PBs was used to estimate tobacco consumption. Daily consumption of nicotine was estimated to be approximately 1.76 ± 1.19 mg/d/capita, equivalent to an average of 13.0 ± 8.75 cigarettes/d being consumed by smokers. The data on tobacco consumption in this study were consistent with those in traditional surveys in Southern China. The metal ion potassium is an appropriate PB for reflecting the real-time population and could be used to evaluate the tobacco consumption in WBE study. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10653-023-01558-z.