Historical institutionalism and policy coordination: origins of the European semester

Using historical institutionalism as a theoretical foundation, this paper explores whether multilateral surveillance and policy coordination under the European Semester (ES), introduced in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007–2008, was based on a path-changing or a path-dependent mechanism. Following a legal-historical analysis going back to the Maastricht Treaty, we demonstrate that the ES in its institutional form was not the result of a crisis-induced critical juncture, but rather of a gradual, path-dependent historical evolution which kept the balance of power relations in the European Union (EU) broadly unchanged. With this, we offer a critique of literature on the post-crisis European economic governance framework, which sees an increase in the influence of supranational actors, notably the European Commission. Focusing on the ES, our paper puts forward an alternative view, grounded in the theory of historical institutionalism, arguing that the balance of power relations has broadly stayed the same. The conclusion is based on a legal-historical analysis of 12 indicators, which help to understand the evolution of the ES.