The Role of Genetics in Clinically Suspect Arthralgia and Rheumatoid Arthritis Development: A Large Cross‐Sectional Study

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether established genetic predictors for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) differentiate healthy controls, patients with clinically suspect arthralgia (CSA), and RA patients. METHODS: Using analyses of variance, chi‐square tests, and mean risk difference analyses, we investigated the association of an RA polygenic risk score (PRS) and HLA shared epitope (HLA‐SE) with all participant groups, both unstratified and stratified for anti–citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) status. We used 3 separate data sets sampled from the same Dutch population (1,015 healthy controls, 479 CSA patients, and 1,146 early classified RA patients). CSA patients were assessed for conversion to inflammatory arthritis over a period of 2 years, after which they were classified as either CSA converters (n = 84) or CSA nonconverters (n = 395). RESULTS: The PRS was increased in RA patients (mean ± SD PRS 1.31 ± 0.96) compared to the complete CSA group (1.07 ± 0.94) and compared to CSA converters (1.12 ± 0.94). In ACPA– strata, PRS distributions differed strongly when comparing the complete CSA group (mean ± SD PRS 1.05 ± 0.94) and CSA converters (0.97 ± 0.87) to RA patients (1.20 ± 0.94), while in the ACPA+ strata, the complete CSA group (1.25 ± 0.99) differed clearly from healthy controls (1.05 ± 0.94) and RA patients (1.41 ± 0.96). HLA‐SE was more prevalent in the RA group (prevalence 0.64) than the complete CSA group (0.45), with small differences between RA patients and CSA converters (0.64 versus 0.60) and larger differences between CSA converters and CSA nonconverters (0.60 versus 0.42). HLA‐SE prevalence differed more strongly within the ACPA+ strata as follows: healthy controls (prevalence 0.43), CSA nonconverters (0.48), complete CSA group (0.59), CSA converters (0.66), and RA patients (0.79). CONCLUSION: We observed that genetic predisposition increased across pre‐RA participant groups. The RA PRS differed in early classified RA and inflammatory pre‐disease stages, regardless of ACPA stratification. HLA‐SE prevalence differed between arthritis patients, particularly ACPA+ patients, and healthy controls. Genetics seem to fulfill different etiologic roles.