Predicted cardiac and second cancer risks for patients undergoing VMAT for mediastinal Hodgkin lymphoma

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To predict treatment-related cardiovascular disease (CVD) and second cancer 30-year absolute mortality risks (AMR(30)) for patients with mediastinal Hodgkin lymphoma in a large multicentre radiation oncology network in Ireland. MATERIAL AND METHODS: This study includes consecutive patients treated for mediastinal lymphoma using chemotherapy and involved site radiotherapy (RT) 2016–2019. Radiation doses to heart, left ventricle, cardiac valves, lungs, oesophagus, carotid arteries and female breasts were calculated. Individual CVD and second cancer AMR(30) were predicted using Irish background population rates and dose–response relationships. RESULTS: Forty-four patients with Hodgkin lymphoma were identified, 23 females, median age 28 years. Ninety-eight percent received anthracycline, 80% received 4–6 cycles ABVD. Volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) ± deep inspiration breath hold (DIBH) was delivered, median total prescribed dose 30 Gy. Average mean heart dose 9.8 Gy (range 0.2–23.8 Gy). Excess treatment-related mean AMR(30) from CVD was 2.18% (0.79, 0.90, 0.01, 0.13 and 0.35% for coronary disease, heart failure, valvular disease, stroke and other cardiac diseases), 1.07% due to chemotherapy and a further 1.11% from RT. Excess mean AMR(30) for second cancers following RT were: lung cancer 2.20%, breast cancer in females 0.34%, and oesophageal cancer 0.28%. CONCLUSION: For patients with mediastinal lymphoma excess mortality risks from CVD and second cancers remain clinically significant despite contemporary chemotherapy and photon-RT. Efforts to reduce the toxicity of combined modality treatment, for example, using DIBH, reduced margins and advanced RT, e.g. proton beam therapy, should be continued to further reduce potentially fatal treatment effects. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12094-022-03034-z.