Develop and validate a radiomics space-time model to predict the pathological complete response in patients undergoing neoadjuvant treatment of rectal cancer: an artificial intelligence model study based on machine learning

OBJECTIVE: In this study, we aimed to investigate the predictive efficacy of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) radiomics features at different time points of neoadjuvant therapy for rectal cancer in patients with pathological complete response (pCR). Furthermore, we aimed to develop and validate a radiomics space–time model (RSTM) using machine learning for artificial intelligence interventions in predicting pCR in patients. METHODS: Clinical and imaging data of 83 rectal cancer patients were retrospectively analyzed, and the patients were classified as pCR and non-pCR patients according to their postoperative pathological results. All patients received one MRI examination before and after neoadjuvant therapy to extract radiomics features, including pre-treatment, post-treatment, and delta features. Delta features were defined by the ratio of the difference between the pre- and the post-treatment features to the pre-treatment feature. After feature dimensionality reduction based on the above three feature types, the RSTM was constructed using machine learning methods, and its performance was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: The AUC values of the individual basic models constructed by pre-treatment, post-treatment, and delta features were 0.771, 0.681, and 0.871, respectively. Their sensitivity values were 0.727, 0.864, and 0.909, respectively, and their specificity values were 0.803, 0.492, and 0.656, respectively. The AUC, sensitivity, and specificity values of the combined basic model constructed by combining pre-treatment, post-treatment, and delta features were 0.901, 0.909, and 0.803, respectively. The AUC, sensitivity, and specificity values of the RSTM constructed using the K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) classifier on the basis of the combined basic model were 0.944, 0.871, and 0.983, respectively. The Delong test showed that the performance of RSTM was significantly different from that of pre-treatment, post-treatment, and delta models (P < 0.05) but not significantly different from the combined basic model of the three (P > 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: The RSTM constructed using the KNN classifier based on the combined features of before and after neoadjuvant therapy and delta features had the best predictive efficacy for pCR of neoadjuvant therapy. It may emerge as a new clinical tool to assist with individualized management of rectal cancer patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-023-10855-w.