Cumulative exposure to metabolic syndrome in a national population-based cohort of young adults and sex-specific risk for type 2 diabetes

BACKGROUND: Metabolic syndrome is associated with type 2 diabetes and its prevalence is increasing worldwide in young adults. We aimed to determine whether cumulative exposure to metabolic syndrome is associated with type 2 diabetes risk in young adults. METHODS: Data of 1,376,540 participants aged 20–39 years without a history of type 2 diabetes and who underwent four annual health check-ups were collected. In this large-scale prospective cohort study, we evaluated the incidence rates and hazard ratios (HRs) of diabetes according to cumulative frequencies of metabolic syndrome over 4 years of consecutive annual health check-ups (burden score 0–4). Subgroup analyses were performed by sex and age. RESULTS: During 5.18 years of follow-up, 18,155 young adults developed type 2 diabetes. The incidence of type 2 diabetes increased with burden score (P < 0.0001). The multivariable-adjusted HRs for type 2 diabetes were 4.757, 10.511, 18.288, and 31.749 in participants with a burden score of 1 to 4, respectively, compared to those with 0. In subgroup analyses, the risk of incident diabetes was greater in women than men and in the 20–29 years age group than the 30–39 years age group. The HRs were 47.473 in women and 27.852 in men with four burden scores. CONCLUSION: The risk of type 2 diabetes significantly increased with an increase in the cumulative burden of metabolic syndrome in young adults. Additionally, the association between cumulative burden and diabetes risk was stronger in women and the 20s age group. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13098-023-01030-z.