Early risk factors for conduct problem trajectories from childhood to adolescence: the 2004 Pelotas (BRAZIL) Birth Cohort

Conduct problems are associated with an increased risk of a wide range of physical, mental, and social problems. However, there is still uncertainty about how early risk factors differentiate different developmental patterns of conduct problems and whether findings replicate across diverse social contexts. We aimed to identify developmental trajectories of conduct problems, and test early risk factors, in the 2004 Pelotas Birth Cohort in Brazil. Conduct problems were measured at ages 4, 6, 11, and 15 years from caregiver reports on the Child Behaviour Checklist (CBCL) and Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ). Conduct problem trajectories were estimated using group-based semi-parametric modeling (n = 3938). Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine associations between early risk factors and conduct problem trajectories. We identified four trajectories: three with elevated conduct problems, including early-onset persistent (n = 150; 3.8%), adolescence-onset (n = 286; 17.3%), and childhood-limited (n = 697; 17.7%), and one with low conduct problems (n = 2805; 71.2%). The three elevated conduct problem trajectories were associated with a wide range of sociodemographic risk factors, prenatal smoking, maternal mental health, harsh parenting, childhood trauma, and child neurodevelopmental risk factors. Early-onset persistent conduct problems were particularly associated with trauma, living without a father figure, and attention difficulties. The four trajectories of conduct problems from ages 4 to 15 years in this Brazilian cohort have similar longitudinal patterns to those identified in high-income countries. The results confirm previous longitudinal research and developmental taxonomic theories on the etiology of conduct problems in a Brazilian sample. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00787-023-02178-9.