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Potential pathways to reach energy-related CO(2) emission peak in China: analysis of different scenarios

The prevalence of global unilateralism and the shock of COVID-19 brought considerable uncertainty to China’s economic development. Consequently, policy selection related to the economy, industry, and technology is expected to significantly impact China’s national economic potential and carbon emissi...

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Autores principales: Zheng, Xiaoqi, Wang, Jiaying, Chen, Yi, Tian, Chuan, Li, Xiaomei
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10127184/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37097569
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27097-9
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author Zheng, Xiaoqi
Wang, Jiaying
Chen, Yi
Tian, Chuan
Li, Xiaomei
author_facet Zheng, Xiaoqi
Wang, Jiaying
Chen, Yi
Tian, Chuan
Li, Xiaomei
author_sort Zheng, Xiaoqi
collection PubMed
description The prevalence of global unilateralism and the shock of COVID-19 brought considerable uncertainty to China’s economic development. Consequently, policy selection related to the economy, industry, and technology is expected to significantly impact China’s national economic potential and carbon emission mitigation. This study used a bottom-up energy model to assess the future energy consumption and CO(2) emission trend before 2035 under three scenarios: a high-investment scenario (HIS), a medium-growth scenario (MGS), and an innovation-driven scenario (IDS). These were also used to predict the energy consumption and CO(2) emission trend for the final sectors and calculate each sector’s mitigation contribution. The main findings were as follows. Firstly, under HIS, China would achieve its carbon peak in 2030, with 12.0 Gt CO(2). Moderately lowering the economic growth rate to support the low-carbon transition of the economy by boosting the development of the low-carbon industry and speeding up the employment of key low-carbon technologies to improve energy efficiency and optimize energy structure in the final sectors, the MGS and the IDS would achieve carbon peak approximately in 2025, with a peak of 10.7 Gt CO(2) for the MGS and 10.0 Gt CO(2) for the IDS. Several policy recommendations were proposed to meet China’s nationally determined contribution targets: instigating more active development goals for each sector to implement the “1+N” policy system, taking measures to accelerate the R&D, boosting the innovation and application of key low-carbon technologies, strengthening economic incentives, forming an endogenous driving force for market-oriented emission reduction, and assessing the climate impacts of new infrastructure projects.
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spelling pubmed-101271842023-04-27 Potential pathways to reach energy-related CO(2) emission peak in China: analysis of different scenarios Zheng, Xiaoqi Wang, Jiaying Chen, Yi Tian, Chuan Li, Xiaomei Environ Sci Pollut Res Int Research Article The prevalence of global unilateralism and the shock of COVID-19 brought considerable uncertainty to China’s economic development. Consequently, policy selection related to the economy, industry, and technology is expected to significantly impact China’s national economic potential and carbon emission mitigation. This study used a bottom-up energy model to assess the future energy consumption and CO(2) emission trend before 2035 under three scenarios: a high-investment scenario (HIS), a medium-growth scenario (MGS), and an innovation-driven scenario (IDS). These were also used to predict the energy consumption and CO(2) emission trend for the final sectors and calculate each sector’s mitigation contribution. The main findings were as follows. Firstly, under HIS, China would achieve its carbon peak in 2030, with 12.0 Gt CO(2). Moderately lowering the economic growth rate to support the low-carbon transition of the economy by boosting the development of the low-carbon industry and speeding up the employment of key low-carbon technologies to improve energy efficiency and optimize energy structure in the final sectors, the MGS and the IDS would achieve carbon peak approximately in 2025, with a peak of 10.7 Gt CO(2) for the MGS and 10.0 Gt CO(2) for the IDS. Several policy recommendations were proposed to meet China’s nationally determined contribution targets: instigating more active development goals for each sector to implement the “1+N” policy system, taking measures to accelerate the R&D, boosting the innovation and application of key low-carbon technologies, strengthening economic incentives, forming an endogenous driving force for market-oriented emission reduction, and assessing the climate impacts of new infrastructure projects. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023-04-25 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10127184/ /pubmed/37097569 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27097-9 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Research Article
Zheng, Xiaoqi
Wang, Jiaying
Chen, Yi
Tian, Chuan
Li, Xiaomei
Potential pathways to reach energy-related CO(2) emission peak in China: analysis of different scenarios
title Potential pathways to reach energy-related CO(2) emission peak in China: analysis of different scenarios
title_full Potential pathways to reach energy-related CO(2) emission peak in China: analysis of different scenarios
title_fullStr Potential pathways to reach energy-related CO(2) emission peak in China: analysis of different scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Potential pathways to reach energy-related CO(2) emission peak in China: analysis of different scenarios
title_short Potential pathways to reach energy-related CO(2) emission peak in China: analysis of different scenarios
title_sort potential pathways to reach energy-related co(2) emission peak in china: analysis of different scenarios
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10127184/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37097569
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27097-9
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