Cargando…

An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections

We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the final size relation. It is shown that the ratio of accumulated counts of symptom...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Bai, Fan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10129303/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37154967
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01920-w
_version_ 1785030703654633472
author Bai, Fan
author_facet Bai, Fan
author_sort Bai, Fan
collection PubMed
description We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the final size relation. It is shown that the ratio of accumulated counts of symptomatic patients and asymptomatic patients is determined by the symptomatic ratio f which is defined as the probability of eventually becoming symptomatic after being infected. We also formulate and study a general age-of-infection model with disease deaths and with two infection pathways. The final size relation is investigated, and the upper and lower bounds for final epidemic size are given. Several numerical simulations are performed to verify the analytical results.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-10129303
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2023
publisher Springer Berlin Heidelberg
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-101293032023-04-27 An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections Bai, Fan J Math Biol Article We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the final size relation. It is shown that the ratio of accumulated counts of symptomatic patients and asymptomatic patients is determined by the symptomatic ratio f which is defined as the probability of eventually becoming symptomatic after being infected. We also formulate and study a general age-of-infection model with disease deaths and with two infection pathways. The final size relation is investigated, and the upper and lower bounds for final epidemic size are given. Several numerical simulations are performed to verify the analytical results. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023-04-25 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10129303/ /pubmed/37154967 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01920-w Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Bai, Fan
An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections
title An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections
title_full An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections
title_fullStr An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections
title_full_unstemmed An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections
title_short An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections
title_sort age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10129303/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37154967
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01920-w
work_keys_str_mv AT baifan anageofinfectionmodelwithbothsymptomaticandasymptomaticinfections
AT baifan ageofinfectionmodelwithbothsymptomaticandasymptomaticinfections