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An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections
We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the final size relation. It is shown that the ratio of accumulated counts of symptom...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer Berlin Heidelberg
2023
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10129303/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37154967 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01920-w |
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author | Bai, Fan |
author_facet | Bai, Fan |
author_sort | Bai, Fan |
collection | PubMed |
description | We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the final size relation. It is shown that the ratio of accumulated counts of symptomatic patients and asymptomatic patients is determined by the symptomatic ratio f which is defined as the probability of eventually becoming symptomatic after being infected. We also formulate and study a general age-of-infection model with disease deaths and with two infection pathways. The final size relation is investigated, and the upper and lower bounds for final epidemic size are given. Several numerical simulations are performed to verify the analytical results. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-10129303 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2023 |
publisher | Springer Berlin Heidelberg |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-101293032023-04-27 An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections Bai, Fan J Math Biol Article We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and establish the final size relation. It is shown that the ratio of accumulated counts of symptomatic patients and asymptomatic patients is determined by the symptomatic ratio f which is defined as the probability of eventually becoming symptomatic after being infected. We also formulate and study a general age-of-infection model with disease deaths and with two infection pathways. The final size relation is investigated, and the upper and lower bounds for final epidemic size are given. Several numerical simulations are performed to verify the analytical results. Springer Berlin Heidelberg 2023-04-25 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC10129303/ /pubmed/37154967 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01920-w Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023, Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Article Bai, Fan An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections |
title | An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections |
title_full | An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections |
title_fullStr | An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections |
title_full_unstemmed | An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections |
title_short | An age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections |
title_sort | age-of-infection model with both symptomatic and asymptomatic infections |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10129303/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/37154967 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00285-023-01920-w |
work_keys_str_mv | AT baifan anageofinfectionmodelwithbothsymptomaticandasymptomaticinfections AT baifan ageofinfectionmodelwithbothsymptomaticandasymptomaticinfections |