‘Potentially curative therapies’ for hepatocellular carcinoma: how many patients can actually be cured?

BACKGROUND: Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is predicated on early diagnosis such that ‘curative therapies’ can be successfully applied. The term ‘curative’ is, however, poorly quantitated. We aimed to complement our previous work by developing a statistical model to predict cure after ablation and to use this analysis to compare the true curative potential of the various ‘curative’ therapies. METHODS: We accessed data from 1571 HCC patients treated in 5 centres receiving radiofrequency (RFA) or microwave (MWA) ablation and used flexible parametric modelling to determine the curative fraction. The results of this analysis were then combined with our previous estimations to provide a simple calculator applicable to all patients undergoing potentially curative therapies. RESULTS: The cure fraction was 18.3% rising to about 40% in patients with good liver function and very small tumours. CONCLUSION: Cure for HCC treated with ablation occurs in the order of 20% to 30%, similar to that achievable by resection but much inferior to transplantation where the analogous figure is >70%. We provide a ‘calculator’ that permits clinicians to estimate the chance of cure for any individual patient, based on readily available clinical features.