COVID-19 in Italy: Is the Mortality Analysis a Way to Estimate How the Epidemic Lasts?

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Every epidemic generates a series of problems of a health, economic, social, and environmental nature at a local and/or planetary level. It is essential to identify them, understand their dynamic evolution, and then find a solution as soon as possible. In this study, a simple mathematical model was used to interpret the temporal trends of the positive-alive and the dead. The purpose of this study is to find a way to predict, if possible, the duration of the epidemic and its phases. Obviously, the epidemic will last until the number of positive-alive collapses towards zero, and that of the accumulated dead will stabilize at the maximum value. The analysis was conducted in Italy in the period between January 2020 and December 2022. The results obtained show that both the analyzes of the positive-alive and dead curves provide reliable predictions that are consistent with each other. However, the analysis of cumulative deaths leads to more precise forecasts of the duration of both the phases and the entire development of the epidemic. ABSTRACT: When an epidemic breaks out, many health, economic, social, and political problems arise that require a prompt and effective solution. It would be useful to obtain all information about the virus, including epidemiological ones, as soon as possible. In a previous study of our group, the analysis of the positive-alive was proposed to estimate the epidemic duration. It was stated that every epidemic ends when the number of positive-alive (=infected-healed-dead) glides toward zero. In fact, if with the contagion everyone can enter the epidemic phenomenon, only by healing or dying can they get out of it. In this work, a different biomathematical model is proposed. A necessary condition for the epidemic to be resolved is that the mortality reaches the asymptotic value, from there, remains stable. At that time, the number of positive-alive must also be close to zero. This model seems to allow us to interpret the entire development of the epidemic and highlight its phases. It is also more appropriate than the previous one, especially when the spread of the infection is so rapid that the increase in live positives is staggering.